Spring camps are coming to a close around the country, a sign that the still-distant college football season is inching ever closer to its beginning. And the return of college football means the return of the Heisman Trophy conversation.
So while it’s still far too early to make any sort of declarative statements about who’s going to win the award, it’s not too early to say that, on paper, this year’s race is as loaded as any in recent memory, meaning there’s a good chance that there could be another surprise winner in the cards à la Fernando Mendoza in 2025.
Given the sheer number of theoretical contenders, let’s rank them and place them in tiers by their likelihoods of winning the award.
The favorites
1. Arch Manning, QB, Texas
Manning battled over-the-top-hype, injury and inconsistency in an uneven first year as a starter at Texas, but played better as the year went on, seemingly fully unlocking his dual threat capabilities in the Cheez-It Bowl win over Michigan. Battle-tested from the experience and armed with an improved cast of pass-catchers that includes top transfer wideout Cam Coleman, Manning is arguably the favorite to win this award.
2. CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame
As physically gifted a thrower as any quarterback in college football, Carr constantly put pressure on defenses with his ability to make difficult throws downfield in tight windows, tying for third in the country in yards per pass attempt. Carr’s greatest—and even still-improving—skill might be his ability to process the defense before and after the snap, giving him the complete package of physical and mental tools entering his sophomore season.
3. Dante Moore, QB, Oregon
Moore’s Peach Bowl struggles vs. Indiana shouldn’t overshadow the fact that he was one of college football’s most accurate passers and a skilled downfield thrower. Early indications from the Ducks’ spring practice point to Moore’s increased comfort dissecting defenses, something he at times struggled with during his first season as a starter. The sky is the limit for the Ducks’ signal-caller in 2026.
4. Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State
Sayin thrived in his first season as a starter for the Buckeyes, leading the nation in completion percentage while ranking top-five in yards per attempt and touchdown passes, finishing fourth in the Heisman Trophy vote in the process. Should Sayin use his legs more in 2026, it will add another dimension through which the Ohio State signal-caller can stress defenses en route to potentially earning another invite to New York.
The legit contenders
5. Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
Smith battled through a late-season quad injury to rack up 1200-plus receiving yards and 12-plus touchdown receptions for the second straight season, finishing sixth in the Heisman Trophy vote in 2025. A year older and with an offseason to keep fine-tuning chemistry with Sayin, 2026 could be Smith’s best year yet.
6. Josh Hoover, QB, Indiana
We’ve already seen one quarterback transfer to Indiana and rise to superstardom in a Heisman Trophy and national championship-winning campaign. Could Hoover, a TCU transfer, be the next? Judging by coach Curt Cignetti’s unbothered reaction to Hoover’s seeming turnover problem, there’s probably a great deal of confidence that the Hoosiers can properly channel his aggressiveness. Playing alongside a superior running game and defense won’t hurt.
7. Gunner Stockton, QB, Georgia
How good was Gunner Stockton in his first full season as a starter for Georgia? Stockton was one of just 11 FBS quarterbacks to throw for 20-plus touchdowns and rush for 10-plus scores en route to finishing seventh in the Heisman Trophy voting. With a year of experience in Georgia offensive coordinator Mike Bobo’s offense under his belt and the makings of an elite offensive line in front of him, Stockton should once again garner Heisman Trophy consideration for a title-contending Bulldogs team.
8. Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss
Trinidad Chambliss was so good after replacing injured starter Austin Simmons that he finished eighth in the Heisman Trophy voting while leading Ole Miss to the doorstep of the national championship game. While there are question marks on the offensive line and at receiver, and it will be difficult for Chambliss to author a better performance than last year, anything close will be good enough to put him in the running for the Heisman.
The in-the-conversation guys
9. Darian Mensah, QB, Miami (Fla.)
If Mensah, a Duke transfer who was one of the best passers in the country, wants to see the power of what a move to Miami can do, look no further than Cam Ward’s 2024 season in which he finished fourth in the Heisman Trophy vote and was the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL draft. Miami’s remade offensive line will certainly be worth monitoring, but with Malachi Toney, Mark Fletcher Jr. and Cooper Barkate—with whom Mensah already has chemistry from their Blue Devils days—there are plenty of weapons to fuel a Heisman campaign.
10. Sam Leavitt, QB, LSU
Leavitt has already shown college football what his ceiling looks like, as he threw for over 2,800 yards, 24 touchdown passes and just six interceptions while adding another 443 yards and five scores on the ground to lead Arizona State to the College Football Playoff back in 2024. Playing for Lane Kiffin and wiz play-caller Charlie Weis Jr. at LSU could unlock a new level for the redshirt junior quarterback. Leavitt, who is rehabbing from a 2025 Lisfranc injury, was limited to mental reps as he strives to learn a new offense, but did return to throwing at the end of Tigers’ spring camp.
11. Malachi Toney, WR, Miami
Electric. Explosive. Game-breaker. These are some of the words that come to mind after watching Hurricanes wide receiver Malachi Toney. As a freshman, Toney racked up 109 receptions—the most in the country—for 1,211 receiving yards and 10 touchdown receptions while helping to power the Hurricanes to the national title game, in which he racked up 122 yards and score. Another word should come to mind in regards to Toney, though. Reliable. He dropped one pass all year last season. A versatile chess piece for a Miami team expected to contend once again, Toney could find himself in the Heisman conversation in 2026.
12. Marcel Reed, QB, Texas A&M
The athletic and mobile Reed was one of the best QBs in the SEC this past season, ranking fourth in the conference in touchdown passes and average yards per pass attempt. While Reed can do some damage from the pocket, he’s at his best when he’s using his legs to improvise, a skill that helped take the Aggies offense to another level in 2025 en route to the College Football Playoff. While leading receiver KC Concepcion is off to the NFL, the combination of returning slot standout Mario Craver and portal star Isaiah Horton give Reed arguably an even better stable of weapons in 2026.
The dark horses
13. Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri
It’s always difficult for a non-QB to catch the Heisman Trophy voters’ attention, but running backs have fared well recently in that regard, as a halfback has garnered an invitation to New York in each of the last two ceremonies. And Hardy, who ranked second in the country in rushing yards with 1,649, could be that type of halfback. The Missouri rusher is a hard runner who bounces off would-be tacklers and was the engine of the Tigers offense last year. The hope is that improved play at QB and receiver opens up added running lanes for Hardy in 2026, who could enter the Heisman conversation if Missouri surprises.
14. Bryce Underwood, QB, Michigan
Underwood had an uneven spring, something that’s not entirely unexpected, given that he’s learning a second offense in what will be just his second full season as a starter at the collegiate level. Much is expected when you’re a former No. 1 overall recruit like Underwood was, yet new coach Kyle Whittingham and offensive coordinator Jason Beck might just be the right men to maximize Underwood’s dual-threat skills. Underwood, just like the Wolverines, has a wide range of outcomes in 2026, but a Heisman Trophy-worthy campaign isn’t completely out of the question, given his immense potential.
15. Jayden Maiava, QB, USC
Maiava made immense strides in his second year at USC, as he was a more accurate passer while also taking more chances downfield to the tune of 3,711 passing yards—fifth in the nation—and 24 touchdown passes. There are question marks at receiver with Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane in the NFL, and Maiava needs to take better care of the ball (10 interceptions last year). But the redshirt senior’s accurate arm and quick release should continue to elevate the offense’s promising group of playmakers, giving him a chance to become the fourth Lincoln Riley-coached QB to win the Heisman.
16. John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma
Mateer’s first season in Oklahoma hit a speed bump in September when he broke a bone in his right (throwing) hand in September, an injury that required surgery and subsequently affected his play for the remainder of the season. Prior to the injury, Mateer looked like an early candidate for the Heisman Trophy, as he had eclipsed 1,000 passing yards and thrown for 11 touchdowns to just three interceptions in the season’s first month. With better health and transfer portal reinforcements on the offensive line and among the pass-catchers, there’s a chance that Mateer puts it all together for a full season in Norman.
The not-so-suprising contenders
17. Bo Jackson, RB, Ohio State
It shouldn’t be surprising that a running back named Bo Jackson is in the conversation for the Heisman Trophy, right? In all seriousness, Jackson, playing alongside Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith Jr. in what figures to once again be a high-scoring Buckeyes offense, should get plenty of chances to end scoring drives in the end zone, and perhaps earn more carries, given the juice he showed on his runs this past season. It will be an uphill battle for Jackson because he’ll likely be competing against his teammates, but a sophomore leap for the halfback could vault him into Heisman talks.
18. Kewan Lacy, RB, Ole Miss
Lacy enjoyed a sophomore breakout in a high-octane Rebels offense engineered by Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr., as the star running back ran for over 1500 yards and scored the second-most touchdowns in the country (24). While Kiffin and Weis have since bolted for greener pastures, Lacy should feel right at home in new offensive coordinator John David Baker’s fast-paced offense in 2026.
19. Keelon Russell/Austin Mack QB, Alabama
Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer has not yet named a winner to the Keelon Russell-Austin Mack battle for the Crimson Tide starting QB job, with a decision likely to come in the summer. While Mack offers DeBoer familiarity with the offense and perhaps a more accurate arm, Russell, a former five-star recruit, has the upside that could insert him into the Heisman Trophy race. He possesses a strong arm capable of pushing the ball downfield vertically, as well as the speed to challenge defenses and extend plays with his legs, traits that were on full display during Russell’s dominant spring game performance. The winner of the Russell-Mack battle is likely to draw Heisman attention, given DeBoer’s QB-friendly offenses and the success the Tide could have in 2026.
20. Bear Bachmeier, QB, BYU
Bachmeier was a big-time playmaker in his freshman year—and first full year as a starter—for BYU, accounting for 26 total touchdowns between the air and the ground. Coach Kalani Sitake, who has led the Cougars to back-to-back double-digit win seasons, is back in the fold, meaning this team should once again be competitive. Plus, Bachmeier has some intriguing weapons to work with, such as freshman speedster Legend Glasker and tight ends Walker Lyons and Roger Saleapaga.
The surprise contenders
21. Rocco Becht, QB, Penn State
The Nittany Lions might more closely resemble the Penn State Cyclones in 2026, given all the Iowa State transfers that new coach Matt Campbell brought with him from Ames. That will suit quarterback Rocco Becht just fine, as he’ll get to throw to his top Cyclones targets in Chase Sowell, Brett Eskildsen and Benjamin Brahmer while working with the familiar presence of offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser. Becht is experienced, has a track record of productivity, and could benefit from the increased media attention he’ll likely receive at Penn State.
22. Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State
What a story it would be if Mestemaker, a former walk-on, contends for the Heisman in his first season in the big-time Big 12. The 6' 4" Mestemaker starred for North Texas last year, leading the FBS in passing yards and touchdowns while being named the American Conference’s Offensive Player of the Year. While the Big 12 will be a significant leg-up in competition, Mestemaker will benefit from the familiarity with ex-North Texas and Oklahoma State head coach Eric Morris, as well as Mean Green transfers in running back Caleb Hawkins and wide receiver Wyatt Young.
23. LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina
After a breakout season in 2024, Sellers found himself at the forefront of Heisman Trophy conversations entering this past season only to take a step back playing behind an underachieving offensive line. There has been change around Sellers—he’ll be playing behind a revamped offensive line and for his third different offensive coordinator as a starter—but the dual-threat abilities that initially made him an appealing Heisman candidate remain. The veteran signal-caller also has a promising wide receiver duo in 2025 leading receiver Nyck Harbor and Purdue transfer Nitro Tuggle.
24. Byrum Brown, QB, Auburn
Brown shouldn’t be considered toothat much of a long shot, given what he brings to the table. He threw for over 3,000 yards with 28 touchdown passes while running for an additional 1,008 yards and 14 scores for South Florida’s high-powered offense. The jump from the American Conference to the SEC will be steep, but Brown has the size, arm strength and mobility to make plays against any defense, giving him dark-horse Heisman potential.
The long shots
25. Leonard Moore, CB, Notre Dame
Only two defensive players—Charles Woodson and Travis Hunter—have won the Heisman Trophy, and both played roles with their teams’ offenses as well, so it’s far more likely than not that the award is going to an offensive player. But if any defensive player has a chance in 2026, it’s Notre Dame’s Leonard Moore, a smooth, lengthy shutdown corner. In just two seasons, the Fighting Irish cornerback has racked up 79 tackles, seven interceptions, three forced fumbles and a defensive touchdown. Moore is likely to be playing for a winning team in 2026, but it’s going to take a truly dominant defensive effort for him to earn an invite to New York.
26. Colin Simmons, DE/LB, Texas
In a sea of talented offensive players, Simmons’s chances of winning the Heisman Trophy are slim. But if the Longhorns edge rusher continues to be a disruptive defender on what looks like one of the best programs in the country in 2026, he could garner some votes. 6' 3" and 240 pounds with freakish speed off the edge, Simmons has racked up 29 1/2 tackles for loss and 21 sacks in two seasons with the Longhorns.
27. Demond Williams, QB, Washington
Williams added about 15 pounds to his smaller frame this offseason in the hopes of adding strength and leaner mass to withstand some of the hits he takes as a runner. He showed flashes of Heisman-worthy performances in his first full season as a starter for the Huskies last year, completing 69.5% of his passes for 3,065 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions while adding 611 yards and six scores on the ground. The key for Williams and the Huskies in 2026 will be putting together better performances against Big Ten opponents, whom they at times struggled against last year.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Way-Too-Early 2026 Heisman Trophy Rankings: Arch Manning Leads Loaded List of Hopefuls.
