The looming release of as many as 120 jailed extremists over the next year will place an “unsustainable” burden on the current system for protecting the public from the threat they pose, an official report warned on Thursday.
The report, by the chief inspectors of probation, constabulary and prisons, says that “several” offenders given "lengthy sentences" for terrorist offences years ago are among those approaching release.
It says their numbers will be boosted by the freeing of other extremists given shorter jail terms more recently because of a policy of making arrests earlier before plots have escalated to create a surge in releases.
It warns that the result is that a system introduced after the Fishmongers’ Hall attack in November 2019 and the Streatham attack of February 2020 – which were both carried out by freed terrorists – under which newly released extremists are given the highest level of monitoring by police, probation and others will become overloaded.
“Current estimates indicate that, over the next 12 months, approximately 120 terrorist and terrorist risk cases may be released from prison,” the report states.
“If all these individuals are released … the current [public protection] model will be unsustainable because of the increasing number of cases.”
The report adds: “While capacity and capability are currently sufficient, the continuing volume of cases falling within the scope of counter-terrorism .. management may impact on this in time unless more cases are deprioritised, or additional capacity is found.
“This is particularly relevant, as several terrorism convicted offenders who received lengthy sentences some years ago are now approaching release.
“At the same time, the more recent trend of earlier intervention in cases, resulting in shorter prison sentences, means these cases too are approaching release.”
Thursday’s report emphasises that most of the reforms introduced to improve public protection following the Fishmongers’ Hall and Streatham attacks have been working well and praises police, probation staff and others for their efforts.
But it says that with 645 “terrorist convicted, terrorist connected, and terrorist risk cases being managed in custody or the community” the “risk of further terrorist attacks has not abated” and that “there is still work to be done.”
It warns, for example, that some offences carried out behind bars by jailed extremists are not being prosecuted despite a call by the terrorism watchdog, Jonathan Hall KC, for this to happen so that dangerous offenders can be kept in prison for longer.
It also highlights problems with information sharing, including with “highly sensitive material”, that is creating a “risk of intelligence falling through the gaps” and criticises the failure to carry out risk assessments before police visit freed terrorists in their post-release homes.
It says this should be rectified, pointing out that police are known potential terrorist targets, and makes 20 other recommendations including a call for the Prison Service to “prioritise basic extremism training for all frontline staff, including refresher training, where required.
Thursday’s report follows a warning earlier this week at the release of an updated Home Office counter-terrorism strategy that “hardened” terrorists jailed for attack planning are among a worrying wave of releases expected over the coming months.
No names were revealed but those eligible to be freed are understood to include terrorists convicted over the 2004 plot to blow up the Bluewater shopping centre in Kent and others involved in the foiled attempt two years later to use explosives to down transatlantic airlines flying out of Heathrow.
The looming releases are also understood to include far-right terrorists jailed in recent years for membership of newly banned neo-Nazi terror groups.
