With the US seeking to create a new defense alliance in the Middle East to confront threats, analysts believe that redrawing alliances in the region requires fundamental changes in US policy towards the region.
US President Joe Biden, during his Middle East tour, is expected to present ideas on building a unified defense system to counter the growing Iranian threat.
“Redrawing alliances in the region will be one of the most important goals of Biden's visit,” said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Jeddah-based Gulf Research Center.
“But these alliances will not be established without radical changes in US policy towards the region,” explained Sager.
“Over the past decades, confusion, hesitation, lack of clarity, and seriousness in US policy have contributed to the gradual collapse of regional alliances,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.
Sager attributed this “confusion” to “the gradual collapse of Washington’s alliances with regional countries, all of which have lost confidence in US policy and the credibility of US commitments.”
“This goal will not be achieved without a tangible shift in the American position,” affirmed Sager.
Commenting on the prospects for forming a “Middle Eastern NATO,” Sager explained that “the procedures for establishing NATO took decades to develop an effective security system that ensures the achievement of objectives and the commitment of all parties to unified rules of conduct.”
“Establishing a similar project in the Middle East may require a long time and extensive efforts,” noted Sager.
“The first challenge, after agreeing on the principle, is to unify the military doctrine and unify the nature of armament and training,” he explained, adding that a second challenge lies in developing a decision-making mechanism in the organization, and addressing other administrative, political, operational and logistical complexities.
However, if the formation of an alliance of this kind in the region succeeds, Sager believes that “the new security system will ensure security and stability on two levels.”
The first level pertains to the prohibition of the use of military force among the member states of the organization.
The second level relates to unifying efforts of member states to deter any aggression from an external party with a collective military and security force.
“Dealing with the Iranian nuclear file, especially the goal of preventing Iran from developing or acquiring nuclear weapons, is the collective responsibility of the international community, and is not considered a regional responsibility,” said Sager about the chances of a Middle East NATO deterring Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
“Therefore, the establishment of a regional collective security system will have limited impact on Iran's nuclear path,” concluded Sager.
In contrast, Sager predicted that “the Iranian regime will use the project to establish a (Middle Eastern NATO) to justify accelerating the nuclear program, given that the project targets Iranian national security and looks to contain the country.”
According to US statements, Biden's visit to the Middle East will include talks around Washington assisting in strengthening the air defense capabilities of the countries of the region.
The president will also explore the idea of merging all these air defenses together so that there is more effective coverage to deal with the growing Iranian threat.
For his part, Fawaz Kaseb, a Saudi political and security analyst, sees that the return of the US to the Middle East theater with this weight is clear evidence of a sudden change that was not a part of the political calculations of the White House.
“The policy of rapprochement pursued by the US administration with some Gulf states and Arab countries to increase security protection (...) is a political investment at an international level to neutralize Russia,” Kaseb told Asharq Al-Awsat.
