ABERDEEN’S defeat at Ibrox in October was a painful one for Dons supporters. Many were feeling quietly optimistic as Jim Goodwin’s in-form side made the trip to Glasgow to face an out-of-sorts Rangers managed by Giovanni van Bronckhorst, and the subsequent 4-1 defeat was a sobering one for the contingent of travelling fans.
Goodwin opted to take the handbrake off that night in Govan and really have a go, and it was a decision that backfired on the Irishman. His team were cut open with alarming regularity while offering little in attack and the final scoreline did not reflect the hosts’ superiority. If anything, it could have been more.
That loss in Glasgow’s south side also served as the jumping-off point for a worrying trend. Of their 11 Premiership matches up until that point, Aberdeen had outperformed their opponents’ expected goals (xG) on nine occasions, using a 10-game rolling average. In a nutshell, this means they generally created better chances – and more of them – than the opposing team in these league encounters (they failed to do so away to Celtic and Hibs). In the subsequent eight games, their expected goals against (xGA) has outstripped their xG.
It gets worse, too. Aberdeen’s xG and xGA are both trending in the wrong direction. As data from Statsbomb shows, the opposition are creating more and better opportunities against the Dons with every passing week, while chances are drying up for the north-east side at the other end of the park.
“I think those xG stats need to be taken seriously,” says Matt Findlay, a 29-year-old Aberdeen supporter. “I was at that game at Ibrox. We started off pretty well but it became a total backs-against-the-wall job. It was four but it was 4-1 going on 10 – even Goodwin said so that day.
“It’s right to say that was potentially a turning point. Goodwin got to a crossroads and he said it afterwards, you get praise for having a go at Rangers. Aberdeen fans want us to have a go at Ibrox and always against Rangers because you see other teams getting things there having been able to soak up the pressure.
“I think maybe that’s something that has impacted that game. But then the home form up until last week was exceptional. I don’t understand how we can go to a place like Kilmarnock and be out-shot. I think the stats from that game are quite telling, they show how bad things have got. Clearly, teams aren’t fearing Aberdeen anymore – certainly on the road. This has been a desperate week for the players, fans – everybody.”
Four defeats in as many games since the Premiership returned from its World Cup hiatus have soured the mood at Pittodrie. There was the 1-0 loss at home to Celtic, where Goodwin – prompted by memories of that trashing at Ibrox – set his side up in ultra-defensive fashion, grimly clinging on until Callum McGregor struck an 87th-minute winner. A dramatic defeat to Rangers followed where Scott Arfield struck twice in second-half stoppage time to turn the game on its head, and that preceded trips to St Mirren and Kilmarnock that yielded zero points.
Defeats on the road have become a regular occurrence this season and the home performances against the Old Firm are an additional cause for concern. When Aberdeen have been proactive and looked to seize the initiative in games they have generally fared well; it is when they have been asked to defend with discipline that many of the problems have arisen. Findlay feels Goodwin’s caution has often created more issues than it has solved.
“The Celtic game could have been four or five on another day,” Findlay said. “If Kyogo hadn’t had that long break I think he would have probably buried a few of them. I think we certainly got lucky that day.
“I understood what Goodwin was trying to do but I almost feel that in itself, over the last 12 days, has been – I don’t want to say a catalyst because I think the Rangers game was very different and they were up for it – but does it show he doesn’t have the same confidence in the players? By not allowing them to go and express themselves against Celtic, who also hadn’t played in a month?
“Against Rangers we were very good for 65 minutes and then just decided to sit back. It’s difficult because they have found new ways to get beat in the last 12 days. Every defeat has been different, which is just so bizarre.
“I just think that we are not good enough defensively to be able to cope with these issues. Even under Stephen Glass [last season], we were praised for our attacking play at the start of the season but at the back they were still very suspect. You’re going to get picked apart by better teams. The goals we lost against Kilmarnock were just awful.
“There are some good players there but they just haven’t clicked at the back. It is a young team and it is a very new team, and they do need time to gel. But when it starts going wrong the pressure mounts and players maybe start playing a little more cautiously – and they have proven this season that when they play cautiously, they’re not good enough to be defensive-minded.”
A change in impetus is required and Aberdeen’s next three games could well provide some. Home matches against Ross County and St Johnstone in the league allow the Dons to re-establish their impressive record at home before the Premiership disbands for the winter break. When Goodwin’s side return, they have a Viaplay Cup semi-final against Rangers to look forward to. The three matches appear to be something of a fork in the road.
“That could really change the whole complexion of the season and Goodwin’s tenure,” Findlay observed. “If you win the next two games and then beat Rangers… I think it’s very much a winnable game but they need to get some confidence. There is also that risk that it could go pear-shaped like last season, you just don’t know.”
