The All-Star break no longer splits the NBA season in half so much as it gives teams a breather for the stretch run. The Warriors, no doubt, were in need of it. For a team with the second-best record in the NBA, though, Golden State enters the final portion of the regular season in a precarious position. They have a 1.5-game lead on the No. 2 playoff seed, 23 games to play and must navigate the foreseeable future without one of their most important players.
In the words of coach Steve Kerr, who will arrive in Portland for practice Wednesday fresh off some time off in San Diego. "We're right there. Those last 20 games are when you feel like the stretch run is happening."
So, before it starts, let's take a look at the big, looming question facing the Warriors — and a couple auxiliary ones — over their final stretch of games.
When can the Warriors count on Draymond Green? (And can they win without him?)
Not only is this the Warriors' most pressing question — the only thing that really, truly matters — but it is also the one without a clear answer. The latest timeline Green threw out came on the Turner Sports telecast of the All-Star Game Sunday night, saying that he hoped to be back in three to four weeks. That would put Green on a mid- to late-March timetable, leaving about a dozen regular season games, give or take, to reintegrate him into the lineup. (Remember: We still haven't seen Green together with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson since 2019.)
"I'm not gonna rush back and try to get back out there before I feel like I'm all the way, 100 percent right," Green said at All-Star weekend, embodying the same sentiment as the organization. The Warriors are well aware that Green's health will be a top determining factor in their postseason fate — their championship chances are fried without Green — so they are focused more on entering the playoffs at full strength than fighting for seeding.
As for the impact of Green's absence, it has been felt more acutely over the Warriors' last stretch of games entering the All-Star break, as they've allowed 110 or more points in seven of eight games and posted a defensive rating of 115.8, the ninth-worst in the NBA over that span. The Warriors' defensive rating is 3.5 points better with Green on the floor, a stat made clear over the recent stretch of games which count as Golden State's worst defensively of the season.
Any playoff series against Denver and Nikola Jokic (currently the No. 6 seed) or Utah and its trio of bigs led by Rudy Gobert (currently No. 4) look much tougher without Green, let alone a potential conference finals matchup with No. 1 Phoenix. Even if it means losing homecourt advantage in the semifinals by dropping to the No. 3 seed — the Warriors hold a 1.5 game lead on Memphis for No. 2 — they would prefer to be forced on to the road than risk Green reinjuring himself and missing those games.
Green has missed the past 21 games with a lower back problem and, according to his timeline, can be expected to miss another eight or so. But there is hope that he could return for a key stretch of games against Memphis (March 28), Phoenix (March 30) and Utah (April 2).
The Warriors are also closely monitoring the health of two other players they hope will play roles in the playoff push: Andre Iguodala, sidelined most recently by a tight back, and James Wiseman, in the final stages of his rehab from a torn meniscus.
Wiseman and Iguodala have each been more active in portions of practice open to the media and could return to the court before Green, though neither should be expected to match Green's unique impact.
Who steps up down the stretch?
The preferred scenario for the Warriors, obviously, would be to win out down the stretch, with or without Green. That's not realistic, facing one of the tougher schedules of Western Conference contenders.
However, the Warriors have proven they can win without their best offensive facilitator and defensive air traffic controller.
During their first 13 games without Green, they went 9-4. Even in their stretch of bad basketball over their past eight games, they've won half of them.
And, to their benefit or detriment, a whole host of things have gone wrong over the past few games. Fixing any one problem is likely the difference between most of their wins and losses. From giving up second chances on the offensive glass to back cuts and easy paths into the paint, Kerr believes most of the Warriors' issues stem from effort, not personnel.
The Warriors believe the eventual returns of Green, Wiseman and Iguodala will be the answer to their problems come the playoffs. But over the final stretch of the regular season? They might be in need of a savior to hold on to the No. 2 seed.
Who better than Steph Curry?
Curry practically willed the Warriors into the play-in round last season, averaging 36.9 points over his final 24 games.
Even if he is no longer ice cold, Curry's shooting from 3-point range this season has been the least efficient of his career (37.9%). He's due to catch fire. Could his 16 All-Star Game 3-pointers — with a little rest and relaxation incorporated in, too — be just what is needed to ignite Curry to carry the Warriors over their final 23 games? The best months of Curry's career, statistically, have been April (28.2 ppg) and May (36.8 ppg).
If not Curry, then maybe there is a player motivated to cement his spot in the playoff rotation.
What does the playoff rotation look like?
In the final game before the All-Star break, Kerr appeared to provide a hint at how he plans to pare down playing time amongst his reserves. He cut the rotation down to nine players, leaving out Juan Toscano-Anderson, Damion Lee and Moses Moody.
But the minutes will have to trim for more players if the Warriors have the roster they would like when they open the first round.
Another interesting adjustment Kerr made in the final game before the break involved Curry and Klay Thompson. With Thompson nearing his full capacity for playing time, the Warriors are still tinkering with his usage, but they appear to like him carrying the second unit.
The two Splash Brothers started and ended the game together, but throughout the rest of it subbed in and out for each other.
Officially, the Warriors' 10-man playoff rotation could look something like this. But there would rarely be a time with Curry or Thompson off the floor. Remember, what matters to Kerr are particular pairings and combinations, so the exact looks on the floor at any given time can be pretty fluid.
First unit
— Steph Curry
— Klay Thompson
— Andrew Wiggins
— Draymond Green
— Kevon Looney
Second unit
— Gary Payton II
— Jordan Poole
— Andre Iguodala
— Jonathan Kuminga
— Otto Porter Jr.
So, who's on the outside looking in? In this case, it's Nemanja Bjelica and James Wiseman.
Bjelica's performance speaks for itself (his 3-pointer against the Clippers was his first in more than a month) and Porter can easily pick up his minutes while playing them more effectively, too.
Wiseman, however, hasn't had a chance to prove himself. Once he is ready for game action — and all indications are that time is not far off — expect the Warriors to give him every chance to work his way into the playoff rotation. The need for size is so glaring that even Wiseman playing a refined role, 10 or 15 minutes a night, could provide immense value to the Warriors.
