Injured, out of shape and out of sync, the Warriors are falling backward in the standings ahead of the playoffs. They have six regular-season games left to maintain precarious footing as the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, and the path forward isn’t easy.
The final stretch includes three home games — interrupted by a short trip to Sacramento — against the Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Lakers that could either solidify that spot or push them into the fourth or fifth seed. Based on recent play, the latter isn’t totally out of the question.
The Warriors have lost three straight and six of their last 10 games, thanks to a deteriorating defense and spotty offense. But this skid is an extension of Golden State’s free fall since starting the season 41-13, exacerbated by Draymond Green’s extended absence and Steph Curry’s recent foot injury.
“Injuries are part of the game, and we haven’t been full strength,” Andre Iguodala said after returning to the Warriors in Monday’s loss after missing 21 consecutive games with a back injury.
“What we can’t do is play the blame game when things don’t turn out the way they should. We had a great start, things were panning out, and injuries in professional sports is something you get bit by.”
Here are a few keys to the final four regular-season games in California:
Draymond and the defense
Dating back to the Warriors’ loss to San Antonio last week, Green recorded a team-worst minus-17.3 plus/minus in three games played. Next worst? Andrew Wiggins with a minus-6.4 in five games.
“I’ve never really been on a team that gets worse when I’m on the floor,” Green said after the loss in Washington. “And that’s kind of where we are right now.”
Without Curry — and with his return timeline murky — the Warriors made it a goal to rediscover their defensive identity. Somehow, they’ve strayed further from the light. Before Green went out Jan. 9, the Warriors were No. 1 in defensive rating (102.2). Since, they’ve been 12th (111.4) — and even worse since he returned March 14, sitting 19th.
A return to form starts with Green, and he’s been moving a step behind his normal pace on defense.
It’s a little unfair that Green is in this situation — thrust back into high-intensity minutes at the five fresh off a back injury, expected to make the Warriors’ defense great again. But the Warriors’ season depends on it.
The defense gets little margin for error against the Suns and Jazz, who can take advantage of the Warriors just like the Magic, Hawks, Wizards and Grizzlies did.
On their five-game road trip, the Warriors allowed opponents to shoot 36% from 3, which is the worst in the league over that stretch. Phoenix’s Devin Booker and Utah’s Donovan Mitchell could punish their slow-footed and discombobulated defense from beyond the arc.
Perhaps the urgency and caliber of competition will light a fire defensively.
“We don’t get mad anymore when someone scores on us,” Iguodala said. “That’s the true essence of basketball, is competing and it’s like, I don’t want you to score.”
The competition
The Suns have seen their fair share of injuries, too, but have eight straight heading into Tuesday’s games as they’ve clinched the Western Conference’s top seed.
Phoenix went 11-4 without point guard Chris Paul — who missed 15 games with a right thumb avulsion fracture — and 18-3 in games without center Deandre Ayton. They should be nearly fully healthy Wednesday, perhaps without forward Cam Johnson, who missed Sunday’s game with a quad injury.
The Warriors are 2-1 against the Suns this year, including a rousing Christmas victory. But in each game they’ve been stymied by Phoenix’s length on defense, particularly from forward Mikal Bridges.
Golden State may have more success against the Jazz, who lost four straight heading into Tuesday’s games and could be without All-Star center Rudy Gobert, who missed Sunday’s game with a leg injury. With Utah 2.5 games back of the Warriors’ third seed, this game could be an opportunity to push the Jazz off their heels.
The Warriors lost their last game against the Lakers in a second-half meltdown in Los Angeles. The Lakers are clinging desperately to a play-in game opportunity — and they could ride the confidence from the last meeting into a competitive matchup.
The Sacramento Kings are free-falling, having lost seven of their last 10 games, but without Curry, beating any team is a challenge for the Warriors.
What’s up with Steph?
The Warriors are 3-9 in games without Curry this year, a troubling statistic knowing the Warriors are losing grip of a top-three seed and may not have him until the playoffs begin April 16.
But after a re-evaluation on Friday, it’s possible Curry could be cleared to play a handful of regular-season games heading into the playoffs — perhaps their final three games against the Lakers, Pelicans and Spurs.
If he’s directed to rest his sprained foot, Curry could also benefit from that extra downtime. The season ends on April 10 and the playoffs start six days later. If Curry and the Warriors’ training staff feel confident about his conditioning and the Warriors’ seeding, they may see an advantage to letting him rest an extra few weeks.
Scoreboard watching
The Warriors may be offering an opening for a shakeup in the West seeding, but other teams in the conference have to take advantage.
The Dallas Mavericks sit a game-and-a-half back of the Warriors’ third seed with a mixed schedule on deck. They play Eastern Conference playoff teams Cleveland and Milwaukee on the road, but also play the bottom-dwelling Wizards, Pistons, Trail Blazers and Spurs to finish off the season.
The sixth-seeded Nuggets sit 3 games behind the Warriors, albeit with a tougher remaining schedule. Denver plays the Lakers twice and the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies along with the hot-handed Minnesota Timberwolves over their six remaining games.
