A new year begins, but is a new dawn for Welsh rugby really here? Warren Gatland puts his Wales legacy on the line in 2023 for a second coming that will dominate the headlines amid a Six Nations campaign and World Cup adventure, but the political issues blighting the game look set to remain for some time.
Our rugby writers look at the year ahead and what we can expect on and off the field.
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Who will win the Six Nations?
Mark Orders: Ireland will take the title this year. Andy Farrell’s team and France are the strongest sides in the northern hemisphere right now, but Ireland have home advantage against Les Bleus and also play England in Dublin.
Steffan Thomas: I think this is Ireland's Six Nations to lose given they play both France and England at home. Andy Farrell's side are ranked number one in the world for a reason and if they can replicate the form they showed in New Zealand last summer they'll be very difficult to beat.
Ben James: It all boils down to that meeting between Ireland and France in the second weekend of the tournament. Ireland are the number one ranked side in the world and have home advantage for that clash, so the smart money would be on them. However, there's just something hard to resist about France at the minute. They might just find a way to get through that one and win the title.
Where will Wales finish?
Mark Orders: Mid-table, potentially third. Will Rowlands is a huge loss, but Wales still have some quality players and are better than they appeared in November. Assuming Gatland hasn’t lost his ability to inspire, they should have what it takes to beat Italy and Scotland on the road. England are likely to arrive in Cardiff on February 25 with momentum, with home games against the Scots and the Azzurri early in their programme, but if Wales enjoy good fortune with injuries, they should quietly fancy their chances.
Steffan Thomas: Even with Warren Gatland back at the helm it is hard to see them finishing above third. The loss of second-row Will Rowlands for the entire championship is an enormous blow while Gatland also has some big selection calls to make especially given the age profile of the squad he has inherited.
Wales will throw the kitchen sink at Ireland in the championship opener in Cardiff but beating Andy Farrell's side will probably be a step too far. Scotland at Murrayfield will be very difficult but it is winnable as is the home clash with England.
They will be desperate to gain revenge on Italy in Rome but beating France in Paris is again asking too much. Wales have the players to perform better than they did in the autumn but they are miles behind Six Nations favourites Ireland and France.
Ben James: Warren Gatland loves to mention how the Six Nations is a tournament of momentum. With Ireland first up, Wales will either start the tournament with an expected defeat or a totally unexpected victory - so it's understandable why he's already been keen to reiterate the point. We saw that exact same thing under Wayne Pivac in 2021 when the fixtures fell this same way. But unlike two years ago, Wales are far and away behind the top two sides in this tournament now. Even Gatland's return probably can't mask that. Third might be the best they can hope for right now, while fourth or fifth seems likelier.
How far will Wales go at the World Cup?
Mark Orders: If they’re properly at it, they could surprise people by reaching the semi-finals, with a reasonable route open to them. Finishing in the top two of their group would likely pitch them against England or Argentina in the quarter-finals — both difficult opponents, for sure, but nothing terrifying.
But the first challenge is to emerge from a pool that contains Australia, Fiji and Georgia, plus Portugal. The Wallabies and Georgia won in Cardiff recently and Fiji are always a handful, but Wales should be more organised under Gatland and results should improve. If Australia will be favourites to finish first in the group, Wales may be able to find a way to qualify as well.
Steffan Thomas: While I'm not expecting too much from Wales during the Six Nations I do think they could shock a lot of people at the World Cup.
By September Warren Gatland will have figured out how to get the best out of this pool of players, and the New Zealander has always found a way to get his side firing at a World Cup.
It is not an easy pool with Australia, Fiji, and Georgia, who beat Wales in the autumn, also in there. But if Wales manage to escape the pool they will likely face either Argentina or England in the quarter-finals which leaves them with a better chance than if they were to play South Africa, New Zealand, or Ireland.
Wales will be far more organised under Gatland and they should be a very difficult side to break down, and with that in mind, coupled with the side of the draw they have landed on, I think they'll be quietly confident of reaching the last four.
Ben James: Wales have been blessed a little in the sense that they're on the easier side of the draw. Were they in Pool A or B, you could just put quarter-final at most and likely be fairly safe in that prediction - such is the certainty of big teams going out early on that side of the draw. If Wales get out of Pool C, though, they'll probably face England or Argentina. Both teams Wales are capable of beating.
However, a pool with Australia, Fiji, Georgia and Portugal has to be negotiated first. Despite the horrors of 2022, Wales *should* get through that, even if at least one of those games is a flip of the coin. After all, the change of coach was made because of the fear Wales wouldn't escape the pool.
Which Welsh player will really emerge in 2023?
Mark Orders: Dewi Lake. He’s won caps already, of course, but he’s a player with limitless potential who looks as if he could rip up trees by the forest full. Gatland will like what he offers.
There’s also Jac Morgan but it could be argued he’s already emerged. Keep an eye on Christ Tshiunza and Dafydd Jenkins, too, along with the young Cardiff centres Max Llewellyn and Mason Grady.
Steffan Thomas: Christ Tshiunza. The former Wales U20s star has been a revelation for Exeter Chiefs in the Gallagher Premiership this season, and has nailed down a place in Rob Baxter's strongest starting XV, which is no mean feat.
Tshiunza has already won three caps for Wales but expect Gatland to be able to push his game to the next level. The 20-year-old is the sort of physical specimen Wales lack in the second-row while he is also blessed with athleticism.
Given he can play at lock along with two out of the three back-row positions it would be a big surprise if Tshiunza didn't get included in Gatland's World Cup squad.
Ben James: You could argue this will be the year that Jac Morgan, after being trusted to start just three games in his first year as an international, will establish himself as a nailed-on starter. He has all the tools for Test rugby, often appearing to influence proceedings by sheer will alone.
Who will be Wales captain under Gatland?
Steffan Thomas: I have a feeling Gatland will want to shake things up a bit.
He could choose one of the old guard like Alun Wyn Jones, Dan Biggar, Ken Owens or Justin Tipuric but it wouldn't surprise me if he plumped for someone like Jac Morgan.
The Ospreys openside may only be 22 but is a natural leader of men and is someone Wales could build their side around for the next decade.
Anyone remember when Gatland selected a 22-year-old Sam Warburton to captain Wales at the 2011 World Cup?
Mark Orders: That would be Justin Tipuric.
There are whispers suggesting Jac Morgan could be in line for the job, but Tipuric has vast experience, a sharp rugby brain and he’s forgotten more than some players will ever learn. He’s also his region’s captain.
Ben James: There would be a nice symmetry with Morgan being handed the captaincy at the tender age of 22, just as Gatland turned to Sam Warburton ahead of his first World Cup campaign with Wales 12 years ago. It would certainly be a huge show of faith, but Gatland has already shown his admiration of Morgan from afar.
Then there's Alun Wyn Jones and the question of what to do with him? Back him with the captaincy that he once held under Gatland or not? What of Justin Tipuric? Pivac's last captain, now Gatland's first (on the second time around)?
All good options, but Dan Biggar being captain was one of Pivac's better moves and, having missed the autumn through injury, he deserves to retain the leadership role.
Which Welsh region will finish highest in the URC?
Mark Orders: It will be tight and could go down to the Judgement Day clash between the Ospreys and Cardiff, but maybe Dai Young’s team will have done the job by that point. The Ospreys will need to go on a winning run to stand a chance.
Steffan Thomas: Cardiff. The Ospreys are the strongest Welsh side but a poor start to the season has left them playing catch up.
Under Dai Young Cardiff have been grinding out wins and I expect them to scrape into the URC play-offs.
Ben James: Before the season began, I had a feeling Cardiff would end the season as the lowest-placed Welsh side, while the Ospreys would easily be the highest. The way Dai Young's men ended last season pointed to a less-than-stellar mindset at the Arms Park, with fans complaining of players being too comfortable all too often last term. The one-year deals handed out to the entire squad due to Covid probably didn't help that image, either. But this year, they've discovered that resolve that briefly flickered after their tumultuous quarantine in South Africa.
With a pack showing some backbone, the incomparable Taulupe Faletau supported by a back-row going harder at the breakdown than perhaps any other unit in the game right now, Tomos Williams and Jarrod Evans pulling the strings at half-back and some quality talent out wide when they can stay fit, Cardiff are well-placed to not only be the highest-placed Welsh side, but actually challenge for a play-off spot. The Ospreys are starting to show the signs from pre-season that made me believe they would be alright this season, and that could make things interesting between the two sides. However, such a poor start to the season might just be their undoing.
Will Welsh rugby be in a better place by the end of the year?
Steffan Thomas: One would hope Warren Gatland will have improved the fortunes of the national side by the end of the year so they should be in a better place on that front at least.
But everything underneath has the potential to get a lot worse than it already is, and that's saying something.
The verbally agreed six-year financial framework between the Welsh Rugby Union and the four regions should get signed over the next month or so but Wales Online understands any new deal will be about survival as opposed to thriving.
All four regions are going to have to cut their cloth accordingly while player wages are about to get pushed down meaning many will seek alternative employment in England or France.
The question of whether Wales sticks with four professional sides or goes down to three will also rear its ugly head again.
Welsh rugby is built on sand and there is no indication the WRU and the regions will come to an agreement over how to fix this.
Mark Orders: It’s hard to imagine it could be a lot worse at regional level with the four professional teams already hard-pressed financially and operating in an uncertain economic environment.
But don’t back against it.
The long-awaited deal at the top of Welsh rugby will probably end up as a sticking plaster that doesn’t really heal the problem.
Belt tightening is on the way which is set to involve squads being reduced in size and pay cuts for players, a number of whom might just decide to ply their trade elsewhere.
The WRU union are likely to do all they can to back Gatland and results should improve for the national team, but without strong professional sides at regional level the house will be built on sand. It shouldn’t be difficult to understand.
Ben James: No. Need I go on?
The year began with fans protesting how the game was being run in this country, with the Joint Supporter Group demonstrating with flags and banners on New Year's Day. God knows how they'll end the year. They fear for the future of the game and it's easy to see why.
The new financial deal still isn't signed in ink and conditional contracts seem more like an insult than a source of comfort to players at this unsettling time. Throw in the talk of smaller squads and pay cuts and it's hard to see the four professional sides survive, let alone thrive.
2023 might well be the year of Gatland's second-coming, with the WRU banking on him doing the business in the Six Nations and World Cup. But it's hard to see that as anything other than distraction tactics right now.
Maybe a change in governance might be forced through this year, but is it already too late for that now?
Holistically, it's hard to see Welsh rugby improving in the next 12 months.
Read more:
Today's rugby news as Siya Kolisi quits South African team to join Wales star
Twenty Wales players injured two weeks before Warren Gatland names Six Nations squad
Dan Biggar warns other Wales players will join him in France
Winners and losers as Gatland learns Tipuric is still the master in Six Nations squad trials
