British consumers should brace for at least two more years of high coffee prices, as geopolitical tensions and climate change continue to drive up costs, according to Italian coffee giant Lavazza.
The company described the sector as facing "exceptional volatility", with Arabica coffee prices soaring by 230 per cent since 2021 and Robusta by 325 per cent over the same period.
This week saw Arabica reach a five-and-a-half-month high on Monday, while Robusta posted a five-month peak on Tuesday, largely attributed to a delayed harvest in Brazil. Prices have climbed sharply over the past month, exacerbated by heavy rains disrupting fieldwork and potentially lowering crop quality.
Brazilian coffee farmers are also reportedly holding back sales, hoping for further price increases, and are bracing for the potential impact of this year’s El Niño weather event, suggesting sustained pressure on global supplies.
Lavazza chairman Giuseppe Lavazza described the market as “quite unprecedented”, adding: “Volatility is the new constant.”
He said: “This has been a year of high turbulence and pressure, not just in the coffee market but in the general economy.”
Geopolitical tensions and climate change has “offered the perfect environment for speculators to step in to move the price to the record levels we’ve seen”, Mr Lavazza said.
He said: “The coffee market now shows fundamental changes compared to the past. We are living in an environment we don’t know very well.”
He said the market would need “at least two years of good crops coming out of Brazil and Vietnam to ease the situation and take out the effect of speculation from the market”.
Meanwhile, a flat white at the firm’s flagship cafe off Regent Street in central London has risen from last year’s £4 to £4.40 to take away and from £5.50 to £6.50 to have in, reflecting increased costs.
However, Mr Lavazza said UK consumers had shown “high resilience” to rising prices – a 1kg bag of the brand’s Qualita Rossa beans now sits at around £22.50 – with sales up on last year.
Lavazza experienced another year of “strong growth” in the UK, with revenue rising 13 per cent to £124.9 million in 2025.
Mr Lavazza said its new Tabli home coffee system, which uses coffee tabs that are individually completely free of packaging, will launch in the UK in September.
Designed to address concerns over the sustainability of aluminium and plastic packaging, Mr Lavazza has described the new system as “the best Lavazza has designed in history”.
