Climate change caused by human activity under a high-emissions scenario may halve the area covered by glaciers outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets by the end of the century, as per a study published in Nature. This will have marked ecological and societal cascading consequences, as novel ecosystems develop to fill emerging new habitats. However, there has been no complete spatial analysis carried out to quantify or anticipate the important changeover.
“Under a high-emissions scenario (in which global greenhouse gas emissions triple by 2075), about half of 2020 glacier area could be lost by 2100,” the authors write. “However, this could be curbed by a low-emissions scenario (in which net zero is achieved by 2050), which would reduce this loss to approximately 22%.”
As per the modelling exercise undertaken by Jean-Baptiste Bosson from the Conservatory of Natural Areas of Haute-Savoie, Annecy, France and others, the loss of glacier area will range from 22% to 51%, depending on the climate scenario. It would mean that by 2100, the decline of all glaciers outside the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets may produce “new terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems over an area ranging from the size of Nepal (1,49,000 sq. km) to that of Finland (3,39,000 sq. km)”.
