It’s been a slow start to the summer in California, where an extremely wet winter and unseasonably cool spring have left the landscapes lush. But a timely spike in temperatures is forecast for the holiday weekend, providing both ideal weather for revelry and the return of high risks.
State officials have issued strong warnings to residents and visitors alike: California has been spared a ferocious fire so far this year – but the dangers still loom large.
“We know what is coming our way – hot weather and dry conditions,” said Isaac Sanchez, a battalion chief with California’s department of forestry and fire protection, adding that the agency is ready and planning for the worst. “The importance of preparation on the part of the public can’t be understated.”
The Fourth of July has long been a high-risk weekend for wildfire in California, with fireworks-fueled celebrations sparking thousands of blazes each year.
Even as snow-capped peaks are still visible across the Sierra and hillsides retain their greenish hues, officials painted a stark picture about how quickly conditions can shift when temperatures rise. “We did have a very wet winter and it’s delaying the manifestation of conditions that lead to large destructive fires – but they are coming,” Sanchez said.
Extreme heat has created hazardous conditions across the country this week as areas of the south and south-west dangerously smolder. In Texas, the deaths of at least 13 people have been attributed to a heatwave that also sent hundreds to the emergency room.
California’s conditions are not expected to be as extreme and are not likely to break state records. The warm weather will also probably be more mild than the summer conditions that set the stage for big blazes in past years. But it will push temperatures higher than they have been so far this year, according to the climate scientist Daniel Swain.
Temperatures will surge this weekend, with some regions possibly hitting more than 100F (37C). As temperatures rise, so do the risks.
“The rising heat and falling humidity will act to dry out vegetation, and the holiday fireworks surge will provide potential sources of ignition,” he said in a post discussing the weekend’s surge of warm weather.
The dousing California received over the last several months has also spurred the growth in grasses and other quick-drying vegetation that is “ready to burn”, Joe Tyler, the director of Cal Fire, said at a press conference on Thursday. In the last week alone the agency was called in to help fight more than 300 new fires.
Even though the added moisture offered drought-stricken landscapes a badly needed reprieve, dead and drying trees still dot the forests, he said. “That dry fuel does not recover in a single year of rain and snow.”
Officials also highlighted how, in previous slow-to-start seasons, the numbers eventually caught up. Hoping to inspire public vigilance, Tyler outlined the grim statistics from 2017, which also followed a wet winter. With more than 1.5m acres burned, the fires broke records at the time and claimed the lives of 47 people. More than 11,000 structures were destroyed.
“There’s an obvious temptation to think that the wet weather has abated or at least delayed the risk of wildfire across California – but the facts are more complicated than that,” Tyler said. “As the Fourth of July quickly approaches, I am asking each of you to be mindful of how quickly a fire can have devastating consequences.”
