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Matt Qvortrup, Chair of Applied Political Science, Coventry University

War is stopping Ukraine from paying its debts -- here's how international powers can continue to support its recovery

Ukraine is burning through money fast. The invasion by Russia has been costly for the country. According to the International Monetary Fund, Ukraine’s GDP could shrink by 35% as a result of the war. The country’s international grain exports have been severely hampered, with a recent deal to restart exports likely to move only some of its current stocks. The country shipped US$27.8 billion (£22.6 billion) in agricultural products to other countries last year, or 41% of its total exports.

Bar chart showing monthly grain exports by Ukraine in tonnes
Ukrainian monthly grain exports have dropped significantly since Russia’s invasion. International Food Policy Research Institutute (IFPRI)

It is not surprising then that the country’s public finances are in distress. Ukraine’s ministry of finance has estimated its public sector deficit increased from US$2 billion in March 2022 to as much as US$7 billion by May.

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