War in Ukraine: Russia's reputedly ‘sanction proof’ economy shows signs of stress

A person shops at a supermarket in Moscow in April. War-related sanctions have caused inflation to soar – 2% per week in the first three weeks of the war and 1% per week thereafter, equivalent to 68% per year. Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP

Seven weeks into the war, how is the Russian economy faring? The short answer is: well below expectations and the worse is yet to come.

Before the war, the Russian economy was stagnating but allegedly safe from macroeconomic crises. To use an image commonly employed by economists: it was stuck in a bog and therefore unlikely to fall off a cliff.