Not such a good morning.
The deadly attacks in Israel over the weekend weigh heavily upon the world. They are rightly compared to the Sept. 11 attacks in the U.S. And like those, they will change the world well beyond the terrible human toll that has already occurred in the region.
I reached out to Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer to ask him about business effects. The first, he said, is that it means the end of a Saudi-Israeli deal, which probably was Hamas’s—and Iran’s—intent. That, plus the prospect of extended war in the region, will depress investment flows in the Middle East.
And that’s just the start. This war may not have much direct effect on global markets. But if it spreads to Iran, which reportedly supported Hamas in the attack, oil prices will spike once again. And the conflict will increase pressure on American politicians to deprioritize funding for Ukraine. The U.S. can scarcely afford to support two wars at the same time.
Then there is, as always, the overarching question of how China reacts. It could prove constructive. After all, China helped broker restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran earlier this year. But there’s also the possibility—not a likelihood—that simultaneous wars in Europe and the Middle East will give Xi Jinping his opportunity to move on Taiwan. In any case, the weekend’s events certainly reinforce the view expressed by 57% of CEOs in our summer survey with Deloitte (which sponsors this newsletter) that “geopolitics” is likely to disrupt their business in the coming year.
I spent the weekend in Kentucky, running with a dozen friends in the 200-mile Bourbon Chase relay and raising money for BuildOn. Between runs and Bourbon tastings, I also finished Michael Lewis’s book Going Infinite about Sam Bankman-Fried. Lewis was on hand for the final days of FTX, with extraordinary access to SBF and his team, and the book is filled with inside detail and insightful stories about the main character, who always looked “like he had just fallen out of a dumpster,” played video games while doing TV interviews, calculated probabilities for every aspect of life and business, and avoided even the most modest demonstrations of human empathy. By the end, I was less interested in SBF and more in the many smart and successful people who fell for this badly flawed man-child. As in the case of Adam Neumann and Elizabeth Holmes, the book that needs to be written is not about them, but about us. As SBF himself said: “People don’t see what they aren’t looking for.”
By the way, I don’t share my good colleague Jeff John Roberts's view that Lewis “went soft” on SBF. I’ve grown weary of journalists who write outrage-filled polemics—all too common particularly in the business press. I prefer those that report and explain what happened, and leave me room to form my own judgements.
More news below.
Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com
