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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
Business
Gene Marks

Want to know if US is in a recession? You’re asking the wrong question

Crumpled one US dollar bill
Is the US in a recession? I can’t answer that question and neither can anyone else. Photograph: Anton Starikov/Alamy

As someone who writes about small business and runs a small business and serves hundreds of small business clients I often get asked: “How are small businesses doing?” Recently the Big Question I’m being asked is whether or not we’re “in a recession”. The answer – like everything these days – is complicated.

Sure, many can say we’re in a “recession”. The economy has shrunk two quarters in a row, which is one widely used definition. Both consumer and small business confidence have plummeted. The stock market is in bear territory. Inflation is high and interest rates are rising. Worldwide demand is tapering.

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