The race to be Britain’s next prime minister will be mostly conducted behind closed doors, as contenders embark on a frantic weekend of lobbying Conservative lawmakers to get onto Monday’s party ballot.
Liz Truss’s dramatic resignation on Thursday triggered a leadership contest that, coming so soon after the bitter one that put her into 10 Downing Street, is likely to deepen divisions in the party that look all but impossible to heal.
No candidate has formally declared their intention to run as they work behind the scenes to win the backing of 100 MPs needed to contest the vote. The void has given supporters of Boris Johnson, the former premier ousted in disgrace in July, space to push for what would be an extraordinary comeback.
Backers of Johnson confirmed they are talking to Tory MPs to gauge his chances, while saying the former leader — whose scandal-ridden tenure was ended when an unprecedented number of ministers quit his administration in protest — had not made a final decision on whether to run.
Central to his downfall was former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, who finished second to Truss over the summer and is seen by many as the front-runner. Though loathed by Johnson loyalists, Sunak’s reputation in the broader party has been enhanced because his repeated campaign warnings that Truss’s economic policies would trigger market chaos were largely borne out.
Cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt, who narrowly lost out to Truss for a place on the final runoff last time, is exploring levels of support among MPs. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, who is often touted as a unifying figure, ruled himself out of the running on Friday with a thinly-veiled warning to Truss’s successor that they should stick to her promise to raise defense spending.
Party managers announced a rapid contest, with a final two selected Monday before an indicative vote to determine the parliamentary party’s preference. If the runner-up fails to drop out at that point, grassroots Tory members would have the deciding vote, with the winner announced Oct. 28.
The timetable illustrates how desperate party managers are for pragmatism, rather than ideology, to drive events over the next few days.
Many MPs are calling for a more stable, businesslike figure than Truss’s self-styled “disruptor-in-chief” approach that backfired so spectacularly. But there are also fears about the Tories’ chances in the next general election, with recent surveys giving Keir Starmer’s Labour party record leads.
As of Friday lunchtime, Sunak had gained the most public support from Tory MPs, followed by Johnson and Mordaunt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg using public statements.
Johnson’s backers insist he is the Conservatives’ greatest electoral asset, after leading them to an emphatic majority in the 2019 general election and winning over swathes of former Labour heartlands in the north.
But his critics say times have changed: his party lost two key by-elections in June, and his personal ratings slumped over the so-called partygate scandal, which saw him fined by police for breaking rules imposed to stem the spread of COVID-19. He also faces a parliamentary probe into whether he lied to lawmakers over rule-breaking parties in Downing Street during the pandemic.
Johnson has an “elastic relationship with the truth,” his former adviser, Will Walden, told Bloomberg Radio on Friday, adding that the former premier “thinks he’s done nothing wrong.”
“Choosing Boris is a huge risk for the Tory party and the country,” he said.
Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman — fired as home secretary by Truss — are also considering a run. They could announce their intentions earlier than more established figures to try to build momentum.
If they do, the risk for Johnson is that they take support he needs on the ideological right of the party.
No matter who wins, they will inevitably face intense questions about the validity of their mandate to govern after the second change of leader without going to the country. The next general election is due by January 2025 at the latest, but a non-binding public petition calling for an immediate national poll had exceeded 700,000 votes as of Friday.
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(With assistance from Alex Wickham, Caroline Hepker and Tom Mackenzie.)
