China’s growth slowed further in November amid a surging Covid wave. The government has been easing Covid control rules and notably increasing financial and credit support for the property sector since early November. We expect that the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) in mid-December may emphasize more support for growth, acknowledge the omicron variant’s milder outcomes, further deemphasize the “zero-Covid” goal, reiterate “scientific and precise” Covid controls with more easing, further support the property sector, underpin unemployment and consumption, and enhance macro policy support. We see continued proactive fiscal policy and a supportive monetary and credit policy stance. Similar to before, key policy targets will be released at the National People’s Conference meeting next March, not in the CEWC.
We expect the CEWC to do the following:
