The art of simplicity is a puzzle of complexity. After nine months and nine Tests in charge of the Wallabies, Joe Schmidt has slotted a few pieces in place on his way to finding the big picture solution Australian rugby has lost sight of these past 25 years. But a 4-5 win-loss season makes clear to all that vexing holes remain on field and off.
Australia began 2024 by beating Wales twice and Georgia once in Tests at home. They then lost the Bledisloe Cup and finished last in the Rugby Championship, losing both Tests against New Zealand and South Africa and splitting a series 1-1 with Argentina. All these results were expected, as was the improvement on show across all the series.
But Sunday’s meek 33-13 defeat to the All Blacks in Wellington – their ninth Bledisloe Test loss in succession and 30th straight on New Zealand soil – was a setback after the hope instilled by the Wallabies’ heroic comeback in Sydney the week before. “We’ve improved,” captain Harry Wilson said afterwards. “[But] ultimately we need to win.”
Wilson’s right. The players need wins. The fans need wins. Rugby Australia need wins. The code is deep in debt and struggling to connect its elite levels with its grassroots. The AFL and NRL have bitten even deeper into rugby’s markets in 2024, with bumper grand finals of interstate rivals and bold expansion plans for the rest of the decade.
Rugby has its own strategy for a “golden decade” and Schmidt’s express remit is to get the Wallabies competitive for when the British & Irish Lions tour in the 2025 winter. That jamboree – nine games in six cities over 10 weeks – has already attracted 40,000 inbound visitors and exhausted ticket allocations in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne.
RA’s hope is that the Lions’ tour will get them out of hock and set them up to host a holy trinity of prestige events on home turf: the 2027 Rugby World Cup for men, the 2029 Rugby World Cup for women, and rugby sevens at the 2032 Brisbane Olympics. If they can pull it off, RA might just save the code and restore rugby to its glory days.
But no one is grinning until Australia’s teams start winning. The Wallabies can’t do it and the Wallaroos, despite a thumping 37-5 win over Wales in Cape Town on Saturday, are still stuck in the second tier WXV2 competition. Both the men’s and women’s sevens sides failed to win a medal at the recent Paris Olympics.
The most vital piece in the puzzle remains the Wallabies, the game’s rainmakers. Not only does Schmidt have to get them winning first and foremost, he has to get them playing with sufficient flair and gusto to uncover a fresh crop of heroes that can inspire the next generation whose parents will cough up for tickets to these events.
Despite five painful losses in 2024, Schmidt did make a few key gains. He built depth in the squad, handing debuts to 16 new players – the most fresh blood injected into the Wallabies in over 62 years. And after a carousel of 10 different captains across 15 months, he settled on a permanent leader in rambunctious No 8 Wilson.
He has a doppelganger for former captain fantastic Michael Hooper in tank flanker Fraser McReight who, with Wilson and Rob Valetini, form a formidable backrow. Up front Angus Bell, Matt Faessler and Taniela Tupou are, on their day, world beaters. And he has speed on the wings in Max Jorgensen, Dylan Pietsch and Corey Toole.
But Schmidt’s failure to find a halves pairing, a bridge between his forwards and backs, has hampered the team’s progress. Noah Lolesio, 24, seems to be the preferred flyhalf but is growing too slowly in the role and possesses precious little fear factor. Nor have Nic White, Jake Gordon or Tate McDermott nailed down the No 9 jersey.
That playmaking axis is the biggest piece in the puzzle for Schmidt. It’s a dilemma that must be solved on the Wallabies’ Spring tour of the UK for Tests against England (10 November), Wales (18 Nov) and Scotland (25 Nov). The climax is a clash against Schmidt’s former charges, rugby’s reigning world No 1 Ireland, on 1 December.
“Those four Test matches, they make up the Lions for next year, so we get a good look at their personnel,” Schmidt said. “It’s going to be a really tough tour but if we keep building we put ourselves in a position of potentially being competitive next July.” The question is: will ‘building’, ‘potential’ and ‘competitive’ be enough?
One light on the hill is the arrival of former rugby prodigy Joseph Sua’ali’i, who returns to the code after a stint in the NRL with the Sydney Roosters. The hulking 21-year-old arrives on a $4.8m three year contract with the Waratahs and Wallabies, with and a profile that can help reignite rugby’s popularity in time for a new broadcast deal in 2025.
“We’ll be pretty happy to have him,” Schmidt said. “He’s a good athlete, a good player and he kicks well.” Wilson too will unabashedly welcome the 196cm 100kg utility on the trip to the northern hemisphere for starters. “It’s super exciting,” the skipper said. “He’s a terrific footballer and adds a lot of value to Australian rugby.”
In a simple game getting evermore complex, Sua’ali’i may yet be the piece of the puzzle Schmidt has been looking for.
