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Morgan Stanley recently made an unusual argument in favor of SpaceX (SPCX). Analyst Adam Jonas believes that at the stock’s current price, investors are getting SpaceX’s entire AI business for free. The analyst values SpaceX’s core space and satellite operations, the rockets and Starlink, at roughly $136 a share on their own. SPCX stock trades around $108 right now. So the market is paying less than what the space business is worth alone. In a sense, Grok, the Cursor coding tool, and the rest of the AI arm are not being valued at all. His view comes partly from speaking to investors, where he says that most of them write off the AI side entirely, due to its heavy spending and unclear economics. Jonas kept an “Overweight” rating with a $300 price target, calling the current stock price an attractive entry point for investors.
Despite the bullish outlook, the analyst warned that the stock could fall further in the near term. Jonas cited a large block of insider shares that is about to become sellable. He also believes that SpaceX’s first earnings report since going public will raise more questions than it answers. There are reasons the AI story could turn, though. On Friday, Elon Musk said Grok 4.6 arrives in two weeks and Grok 4.7 in four. More Starship test flights are coming, along with possible new cloud deals. For now, the market is treating SpaceX’s AI business as worthless. Jonas is betting that doesn't last.
