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Fortune

Paolo Confino

Wall Street's Trump trade unravels after a shock poll dented his election odds

Donald Trump J Ann Selzer Bitcoin Iowa Kamala Harris Trump Media

Former President Donald Trump (Credit: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

One of the nation’s best pollsters just flashed a major warning sign at the Trump campaign.

On Saturday, J. Ann Selzer, an Iowa pollster celebrated for her accuracy, released her final pre-Election Day poll, which showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump 47% to 44% in the Hawkeye State. Both campaigns had all but written off Iowa as a surefire Trump victory. No Democrat has won Iowa since Obama in 2012. In 2016 and 2020, Trump won the state decisively by nine points and eight points respectively.

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