Let me begin by saying that most of the clichés about the Six Nations are true. Just about anything can happen - apart from an Italian Grand Slam.
Momentum is indeed everything and luck will play its part.
However, it is not a tournament that is simply defined by good fortune. The teams who seize their opportunities and make the fewest mistakes will win, as rank outsiders Wales demonstrated last year.
Trying to apply some objective analysis before a ball is kicked is fraught with danger, but that’s what we all like to do.
So here goes.
Wales are in mediocre form after the Autumn series. The injured players have not returned in numbers, damaging squad depth and experience. Ireland are fit, confident and expected to do well, a pressure under which they have not always thrived.
It would be churlish of me to deny that Ireland are not very strong favourites for this opening game. The intensity, quality and tempo of their victory against the All Blacks was beyond what Wales are currently capable of.
A cold-hearted observer would conclude this will be a comfortable Irish win.
Most of the Welsh team picks itself, but the composition of the back-row and midfield have been debated most.
For me, I would have picked Ross Moriarty, Taine Basham and Aaron Wainwright to start. Tough on Ellis Jenkins for sure, but in the absence of Ken Owens, Alun Wyn Jones and Josh Navidi, Wales are short of players with gain line presence.
Moriarty could offer that.
Ireland have so much dynamic power in their pack and unless Wales have players who can stop them building momentum, it will be a mauling.
But being on the bench, Moriarty could still play a key role and help Wales frustrate Johnny Sexton.
I suspect Wales will be using two or three in a tackle to not allow forward progress, which is a risk worth taking, despite being short in other areas as a result.
In attack, Wales look a little devoid of natural ball carriers. George North in midfield was such a threat last year, so Wales don’t have a player they can just hand the ball to who will run into an organised defence and get over the gain line.
Basham was Wales’ best carrier in the autumn, but he needs some movement in the game or a loose ball before he can explode into action.
I can fully understand Wayne Pivac’s desire to play Josh Adams in midfield. He will challenge the defence with physicality and pace. But I have two reasons why I would have counselled against that move.
Firstly Jonathan Sexton, the canniest fly-half around, will surely exploit his positional naivety in defence.
For those reasons I would have gone for Nick Tompkins and Jonathan Davies as the centre pairing.
But my main reason for keeping Adams on the wing is that I would want to use his attacking ability in the air to regather kicks.
The strategy I would advocate against Ireland would be this: Attack for two phases from set piece, when there are fewer in the defensive line, and see if the extra space allows you to get some ‘go-forward’. If you’ve got quick ball, then great, keep in hand and get into the structure that Pivac is renowned for with the more attacking forwards in the wide channels.
However, if after two phases the gain-line has not been breached and possession is slow, we should kick.
Ireland tend to set up with a 13-man front line and two deep covering the 50-22 kicks in the channels. They have aggressive line speed, leaving a lots of space behind the front line.
Dan Biggar should kick into this space, using a variety of chips behind the centres, shallow cross field kick-passes for wingers and the traditional hanging kick to win in the air.
That would bring Louis Rees-Zammitt and Johnny McNicholl into the game regularly without having to go through the phases first. It also avoids Wales’ ball carriers getting swallowed up by Ireland’s defence.
There is risk in kicking possession away, but it may well slow down the line speed, giving the backs a bit more time to play later on.
These tactics pre-suppose that Wales will have a functioning scrum and lineout of course. Over the last couple of years those areas have been found wanting at times. Ireland will be salivating at the prospect of attacking the set-piece because with dominance there, the rest of the game is academic.
They will be over Ryan Ellias’ throws to see if the lineout can hold up.
The other thing I would have been tempted to do would be to have a 6-2 split on the bench. The forwards are going to have to put in a herculean effort to match Ireland’s intensity and that is the priority for this match.
Overall, I still think Ireland are clear favourites to win by a comfortable margin, but that is how I would try to pull off an unexpected victory.
Gwyn Jones is a part of S4C’s Clwb Rygbi Rhyngwladol team. Coverage of Ireland v Wales gets underway at 1.45pm on Saturday, on S4C and S4C Clic. Watch every Wales match during the 2022 Guinness Six Nations on S4C. Also, S4C will show coverage of Ireland Under 20s v Wales Under 20s from 7.50pm on Friday evening. English commentary available.
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