The bookies make Scotland favourites to beat Wales in Cardiff. And that is saying something, given Scotland have not won there since 2002.
Bookies are cold-hearted, boring stattos. They generally ignore the hysterical whims of the rest of us, which is why they are so rich. So when they overlook a run of defeats stretching back more than 20 years, when they stick their necks out to say a side are likely to win despite all that, we know something must be afoot.
The most obvious input into the rating of Scotland as four-point favourites over their hosts is the dramatic loss of experience Wales have undergone. Long have been the murmurs of unease as that famous Wales side, winners of multiple grand slams over those two decades, juddered on and on, with multiple veterans racking up three-figure tallies in caps. This time a year ago, they had 10 players in their Six Nations squad with more than 50 caps. All of them have now gone.
One of them George North, all 121 caps of him, should be back for the England game at Twickenham next weekend, but for round one Wales will take to the field with 413 caps in their starting lineup, more than half of them shared between Gareth Davies, Josh Adams, Adam Beard and Aaron Wainwright. Seven of the side muster 62 caps between them.
Twelve of those are held by Dafydd Jenkins, the new captain, at 21 Wales’s youngest since Gareth Edwards. His appointment has been on the cards for some time and particularly so since one of his predecessors, the great Alun Wyn Jones (170 caps), announced his retirement last year. Warren Gatland chose a pair of co-captains for the World Cup in the autumn, but both of those, Jac Morgan and Dewi Lake, are currently absent too.
This might be called the Six Nations of absentees. Most of the attention has centred around the missing of England, Ireland and France, but Wales have been clobbered most severely of all, if the sheer number of caps is the metric. Or if it is stardust they have suffered horribly with the loss of Louis Rees-Zammit, who left only a couple of weeks ago to seek his fortune in the NFL.
So Wales go into as big a game as this with the least experienced Six Nations starting lineup since they picked a second team against Italy in 2019 in what turned out to be another grand slam campaign. Gatland is quietly confident his new team will deliver. North may be absent, but Wales field a punchy centre pairing in Nick Tompkins and Owen Watkin, both relatively experienced with 30-plus caps each. There is a light but tough and flexible back row, anchored by the admirable Wainwright.
But all eyes will be on the replacements for Dan Biggar and the Liam Williams-Leigh Halfpenny axis at the back. Sam Costelow steps up for his first Six Nations appearance at fly-half, while Cameron Winnett wins his first cap. The Cardiff full-back has just turned 21 and has been turning the heads of spectators and defenders. Gatland is excited by his potential, and he may well be right. Even Halfpenny had to start somewhere.
All of which might be to overlook Scotland’s situation. They have only 104 more caps in their starting lineup, most of those up front. From 11 to 15, they are actually less experienced (by 44 caps) than their hosts.
Amid all the wailing about absentees, Scotland are nursing their own gaping hole at full-back, where Stuart Hogg used to be. And then Blair Kinghorn. Opposite Wales’s debutant Winnett will line up Kyle Rowe, just the one cap on a tour to Argentina in 2022. He has sevens experience and is likely to prove as quicksilver as Winnett, albeit he is nearly five years older. He steps in for Kinghorn, whose absence through injury from the first two rounds will be sorely felt by the Scots.
It is at fly-half, though, where the most glaring disparity in experience is to be found. The stormy relationship between Finn Russell and Gregor Townsend appears to have calmed, for the coach has conferred the captaincy on his mercurial playmaker. Russell has hit his 30s and become a father, all the classic milestones after which mercurial playmakers are supposed to mature.
If Scotland are to prove worthy of the bookies’ confidence, let alone overturn the weight of that history in Cardiff, they will need an authoritative hand at No 10. Cold-hearted and boring Russell has never been. He may have occasion to learn from the stattos.
