WALES could become independent “by default” if Scotland leaves the UK, according to the author of a new book examining the constitutional debate.
Will Hayward said he does not accept the argument that Scottish independence will provide a “blueprint” for Wales and that it had to develop its own case for leaving or staying in the Union.
He said it was important for Wales to have a conversation on independence now, so that it is in control of its own future.
“The biggest risk for Wales isn’t becoming independent because it votes to become independent, I think it is becoming independent by default,” he said.
“You could foresee a situation where Scotland leaves and a campaign in England is saying well why are we bankrolling these subsidy junkies across Offa’s Dyke?
“The worst thing that could happen to Wales is to become independent by default – that would be disastrous.”
Hayward, who is Welsh Affairs Editor at Wales Online, said his book – Independent Nation: Should Wales Leave The UK?, which will be published on August 30 – aimed to increase the quality of the debate around Welsh independence.
“We saw from Brexit what happens if you have a debate which isn’t based around informed facts,” he said.
“Quite often the answers to these questions in the book are we don’t know or it depends – but that is actually fine as it just reflects the inherent uncertainty of it.
“So the idea of the book is two different people could read this book and they could come to a different conclusion based on their attitude to risk, their income and whereabouts they live in Wales.”
He added: “I think rather naively I thought there would be a developed independence side and Unionist side for me just to critique. That just isn’t the case.
“In Wales you have a few people on the independence side who have thought about it a lot, but the vast majority of people were still at the stage where a lot of it is still just based on memes.
“There isn’t really a Unionist side – there is just everyone else, it is not developed.”
One issue of “far greater magnitude” than in Scotland, Hayward said, is that of the border with England.
“Fifty per cent of people in Wales live within 25 miles of England, the north-east of Wales: Wrexham, Denbighshire, Flintshire are the most commuted out of areas of the UK,”
he said.
“There is a strong argument the capital of north Wales is Merseyside.
“As part of the research, I drove the entire length of the border stopping everywhere I went, there’s even a pub in one village where the border goes through the middle of the bar.”
Another major difference is the dominance of Labour in Wales, which won half the seats in the 60-member Senedd in the 2021 election and has been in government ever since devolution in 1999.
“Welsh Labour have had a much more comfortable relationship with their idea of Welshness than Scottish Labour have had with being Scottish,” Hayward said.
“There is a strong argument for Welsh Labour are the most successful democratic political party in history, if you just look at elections since 1920.
“In many ways, they have parked their tanks on Plaid Cymru’s lawns as they are essentially going for devo-max, or Home Rule as Mark Drakeford would coin it. So there is not a lot of places for Plaid Cymru to go.”
When it comes to whether Scottish Labour could learn from their Welsh party counterparts, Hayward said he did not know enough about the intricacies of Scottish politics to comment but added: “I don’t know if that ship has sailed”.
Polls have suggested a gradual rise in support for independence in Wales, rising from 20% in 2014 to between 30-35%.
Plaid Cymru failed to make a serious breakthrough in the 2021 Senedd election, and was down six seats in the council elections earlier this year – although it did gain three more councils to control four outright in total, the highest number in the party’s history.
Hayward said the independence movement in Wales is currently struggling to show the “link between independence and how this will impact people’s lives”.
He said the ongoing Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, which has been set up by the Welsh Government, was good as it places “realistic options” on the table.
When it comes to the future of Welsh independence, he pointed to the unpredictability of politics with the fact that “eight years ago we were in the EU”, adding: “The only prediction I would realistically make is this debate won’t go away.”
