Wales have drawn level in their series with South Africa, but as we head into the decider in Cape Town, the last two weeks are starting to take their toll.
The gritty 13-12 win at Free State Stadium seems to have come at a price, with key players picking up injuries, the severity of which are yet to be disclosed. Wales have arrived in the Mother City to prepare for the third and final Test, as the Springboks lick their wounds in Hermanus.
Wayne Pivac will already be pondering his team selection for the winner-takes-all clash. Until now, he has opted for a consistent selection, having spent the last two years experimenting with his squad. Now he is attempting to nail down a starting side that will carry through until next year’s Rugby World Cup.
But, after two arduous Tests, now might be the time to freshen up in certain positions. Here is a side he may look to pick for the third Test.
BACK THREE
Liam Williams, Louis Rees-Zammit, Josh Adams
Wales only brought four back three players on the trip, with Williams and Rees-Zammit really picking themselves at this stage, given how they’ve performed on the tour.
Alex Cuthbert picked up an shoulder injury that forced him off early in the second Test and Adams looks like he’s battling to regain full fitness after suffering a knee injury in April.
The Ospreys man has been ruled out of the decider, making Pivac's decision for him. Adams will start.
CENTRES
George North, Nick Tompkins
Pivac will be desperate for this centre partnership to flourish because, on paper, they compliment each other very nicely indeed.
North should bring the punch and Tompkins the subtlety but they are still feeling their way into things. North is also still settling back into a rhythm after spending 18 months out with a serious knee injury and that needs to be considered when his performances are assessed.
HALF-BACKS
Gareth Anscombe, Tomos Williams
Again, Biggar's shoulder issue is a bit of an unknown at this stage but he looked in a desperate situation after the match last Saturday. He was holding his right arm heavily and was unable to shake hands properly. It would come as some surprise were he fit to take the field this coming weekend.
His absence would pave the way for Anscombe to get a start on this tour. Wales moved nicely when he took the field in Bloemfontein and few would take issue with him getting a chance to start in light of a Biggar injury.
If he does wear the No.10 jersey, it would not be the worst idea in the world to throw Tomos Williams inside him. On the surface, it may look like added upheaval but it’s actually the opposite. Anscombe and Williams know each other’s games inside out, having played together at Cardiff and for Wales. That’s a lively combination and would give the Boks something different to think about.
Kieran Hardy was outstanding in the first Test from scrum-half but Pivac insists that the move to replace him at half time last Saturday was a tactical one. The Scarlet did look to be injured too but, either way, getting the hook at the break does not bode well.
FRONT ROW
Gareth Thomas, Ryan Elias, Sam Wainwright
There may have been a conversation to be had over hooker this week, given the quality of Dewi Lake and the heavy workload that Ryan Elias has shouldered in this series. He’ll be feeling it at this stage.
But Lake’s throwing crumbled in Bloemfontein and almost completely undermined Wales’ comeback. There were at least four throws that resulted in a lost lineout or not straight when he was on the field. In light of that, it is probably a safer bet to keep the status quo.
Tight-head is an utterly fascinating call. Dillon Lewis looks to be out of the series, having been spotted in a sling after a scrum collapsed on top of him last Saturday. His odds seem even slimmer than Biggar’s at this stage.
Last week, following the injury to Tomas Francis, forwards coach Jonathan Humphreys dismissed the suggestion of Wyn Jones covering tight-head on the bench straight of the bat, placing faith in Sam Wainwright.
The young prop did exceptionally well when he came on last Saturday but there is a huge difference between last Saturday and this. Not to take anything away from the 24-year-old’s efforts but he was propping against fellow debutant Ntuthuko Mchunu. Whoever starts in the No.3 jersey this week will be facing Steven Kitshoff or Ox Nche and that is an entirely different proposition.
Wales abandoned the throwing Jones over the other side of the scrum last week but they have to give it serious consideration in Cape Town. Showing some faith in Wainwright might go a long way but having the even more inexperienced Harri O'Connor, 21, as his back-up may be foolhardy, given where he is at at this stage of his career.
If Wales start with Wainwright, Jones should be covering on the bench at the very least.
SECOND ROW
Adam Beard, Will Rowlands
There isn’t a lot to discuss here as it has become one of the most nailed down positions in the Wales squad. However, Rowlands’ readiness might come into question here.
He looked to be trudging a little gingerly at Free State Stadium. It may well have just been the usual wear and tear that one experiences when taking on the world champions in their own backyard.
But if it was something more serious, then Alun Wyn Jones might get the start he craves on this trip. In Biggar’s absence, the captaincy becomes a real talking point. If Jones starts, it would be a huge call were Pivac not to pass the responsibility back to him. But if the vastly-experienced talisman remains on the bench, Beard may well become Wales’ newest leader.
BACK ROW
Dan Lydiate, Tommy Reffell, Taulupe Faletau
Pivac will not be touching this unless an unknown injury forces him to. The trio have been Wales’ best-performing unit on this tour, with Lydiate’s defence reaching remarkable levels. His performance in Bloemfontein was one of the best of his career and Reffell was not far behind.
He had plenty of joy at the breakdown and snaffled the man of the match award to go along with all the penalties he won. Faletau remains a classy operator. It’s tough on someone like James Ratti, who has been involved in two campaigns and is yet to earn his debut, but there is a series on the line.
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