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Ben James

Wales have been undermined by the same problem for three years and a 20-phase 'attack' against New Zealand summed it all up

There wasn't a great deal to cheer about for Wales on Saturday.

The All Blacks rolled into town and put Wayne Pivac's side to the sword with ease, notching up another half-century against Wales for the second year in a row.

Defensively, Wales couldn't match Ian Foster's side and their footwork in the tight, while other facets of the game - from the scrum to exits - left plenty to be desired.

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Attack was another area that flattered to deceive. Debutant Rio Dyer crossed from a well-worked strike move, while Justin Tipuric capitalised on a smart kick by Tomos Williams, but other than that, Wales' attacking game offered little in phase play.

All too often, New Zealand were just able to soak up pressure as Wales came at them with few ideas.

In their first attacking set of the match, the starting shape is clear to see as Wales look to effectively stretch New Zealand across the pitch - waiting for a dogleg or a weak shoulder to attack. Working from the touchline, Wales have a shape set up.

A bank of three forwards, with a fly-half out the back and another bank of forwards beyond them as well as a second playmaker. Wales can spread it if they want, but here they go one-out off nine on the first phase, before hitting the widest man of the pod on second phase - Adam Beard in this case - who then pops a pass around the corner to Nick Tompkins in motion.

Tompkins and North arriving late helps Wales target the edge and Wales make some metres here.

Coming back though, it just seems obvious what they're going to do. Bank of three forwards carrying again off 10, before going out the back on the second phase infield to try find the edge on the other side of the pitch.

It's easy for the defence to read and they do a good job of targeting one of Wales' biggest weaknesses - the clearout - for a breakdown penalty.

This has worked on occasion in the past, though. Wales' record win over England in 2021 was built upon multi-phase attacks that isolated England's aggressive blitz and found edges.

But confidence in the system seems to have dwindled. Whereas that Six Nations saw the multi-phase set-up supplemented by forwards producing tip-on passes and backs running mini-loops to help keep defenders guessing, faith in the shape appears low and, as such, things have slid towards predictability.

That became most apparent when Wales were forced to chase the game after going down 17-0 early on. To their credit, they got back into it thanks to that Dyer try off first-phase, but this Welsh side isn't one that looks comfortable when forced to break down defences early on in matches.

A couple of back-to-back attacking sets that lasted 20 phases and roughly 150 seconds ultimately laid the platform for Dyer's try, but the truth of the matter was that both sets saw Wales struggle to threaten before the All Blacks got over eager at the breakdown as they sensed turnover opportunities.

Starting with the first set, Gareth Anscombe gathers a box-kick from New Zealand and is tackled, with Wales then moving it to the blindside with George North. He only has Dyer outside him and the All Blacks do a nice job of shutting down the space effectively.

Crucially, Rhys Priestland, who had been hanging behind the ruck to act in motion behind the pod of three forwards on the openside, is pulled across to help clearout. In going to the left touchline to try set up their attacking shape, they've also managed to remove their playmaker from it.

As such, that first carry is just a case of hitting the middle man of the pod and recycling. The next phase sees Tompkins take the ball relatively stationary before running hard to try target a pair of All Black front-rowers.

However, the pod outside him also consists of two props and a lock and, despite Tompkins' efforts to hold his feet and delay a pass, they never seem alive to the chance of running at weak shoulders and Scott Barrett is able to soak up Gareth Thomas' carry.

From there, Wales are already limited with their shape. Priestland has two options outside him - Beard flat or Anscombe deep - and it becomes apparent where the ball is going quickly.

Anscombe is swallowed up behind the gainline and Wales' ineffective clearout would have been exposed were it not for the fact that Caleb Clarke needlessly fails to roll away.

Four phases down, roughly seven metres lost but somehow winning a penalty. The next set, from the resultant lineout, isn't much better.

Wales try to get a maul moving towards the line, but it's just diverted infield before coming to a relative halt. As such, Wales have to shift the ball out to the backs and the result is North carrying off Tompkins against a packed All Blacks' defensive line.

Tompkins and Priestland work hard to secure the clearout and Wales continue to move it to the openside. As has been a pattern under Pivac and Stephen Jones, his entire back-three look to pop up in wide channels and work in unison.

However, given how easy that last phase was for the All Blacks' defence, they're able to fold easily and again outnumber the Welsh trio - forcing Louis Rees-Zammit into contact.

Wales move back infield with another middle hit on a pod of three of nine, before trying some ball movement to catch the New Zealand defence. Tompkins recognises a slight dogleg and fires a pass across Codie Taylor to Beard. He then immediately gives a tip-on pass to Tommy Reffell, which does little to really influence the collision.

On the next phase, Wales have worked it so that their entire backline is popping up here, but the intentions are hard to read. A pass is fired beyond Priestland to Dyer, who realistically has little options around him before Rieko Ioane shuts him down.

Wales move it back out to the left, first through a pod of three off nine and then playing to another pod of three off 10. Priestland hits the middle man, Gareth Thomas, who pulls it back to Tompkins. With the pod not really committing All Black defenders, they're able to drift off.

Tompkins delays his pass for a split second, allowing Rees-Zammit to switch to Sevu Recce's inside shoulder as the All Black worried about the space outside him. But even with Rees-Zammit stepping past Reece, Jordie Barrett drags him down.

The three forwards from that pod track across, with Reffell clearing out and Thomas and Beard taking up positions either side of the ruck. Wales end up going to neither, instead throwing a lengthy pass back infield to Will Rowlands - who is all on his own.

It seems a little questionable at first, especially when he's hit by two All Black defenders who then opt not to contest the ruck despite probably having a decent chance of disrupting matters. Two Welsh players step in to secure it and, just like that, Wales have held their width back on the left.

Having played quite formulaically so far in going touchline-to-touchline, this is the first time we really see Wales cut back against the grain and it works in making some in-roads. Just decent hands get Wales on the outside with Ken Owens, and that pulls Beauden Barrett up from full-back.

Working back from the touchline again, Wales now have a backfield being defended only by Richie Mo'unga. Wales hit up another pod of three before pulling it back to Tompkins, who feeds Rowlands.

Clearly the intention is to shorten the All Blacks' defensive line before striking out wide. However, it's a lack of tidiness at the breakdown that leads to Aaron Smith snagging Tomos Williams after Tomas Francis' clearout takes out All Blacks hooker Taylor and Taulupe Faletau.

Wales clear things up, but their options on the right are now limited. Anscombe pulls a pass back to Rees-Zammit, but Ioane is safe to fly up and force him back inside, given the relative lack of options.

Working to keep the ball, Wales lose both playmakers in their backline to the clearout, while Williams - having been caught by Smith on the last phase - is slow to get across to this breakdown.

Eventually, Wales switch direction again, hitting Faletau in a pod of three close to the ruck before the No. 8 pulls it back to Tompkins. However, options are limited for the centre so he throws a pass across Beard for North, with the outside centre easily shepherded by a set All Black defence.

By now, Wales have been pushed back outside of the 22. Once again, they hit that familiar pattern of a pod of three, with Rowlands carrying into contact. New Zealand largely know there's little threat of any ball movement in that pattern and leave the breakdown alone as Wales lose two bodies to the ruck.

As such, there's little in the way of shape on the next phase. Tompkins again steps in at first-receiver and spots that New Zealand's ruck guard and bodyguard are already beginning to drift away from the breakdown. So too is scrum-half Smith, who has largely been defending directly behind breakdowns to put pressure on Williams.

If anything, the fact that the guard and bodyguard are already pushing off from the breakdown is a sign that Wales have done little to hold that inside defence. There's been an emphasis on these phases of looking to move New Zealand around with touchline-to-touchline tactics, but that only works if you stress the defence. Otherwise, it's just lateral rugby.

To his credit, Tompkins steps back inside and generates some momentum as he steps past Scott Barrett and over the gainline. However, Wales lose some of that credit as four forwards get sucked into securing a ruck.

That hinders Wales as they look to play off that momentum. They cut back to the blindside and Williams fires a pass to North, who attacks Jordie Barrett's outside shoulder to just about bring Wales back into the 22.

Reece steps in to complete the tackle, while Dalton Papalii also tracks across to go hard at the breakdown. Wales have Ken Owens and Reffell arriving at the breakdown, but were it not for Reece failing to release before going at the ball, they'd probably have had a struggle to retain possession.

It's another impetuous penalty from New Zealand where it wasn't really needed, given how they were holding Wales with relative ease.

16 phases in this set and Wales have retreated from about 10 metres out from the All Black line to the edge of the 22. A lot of it made for tough viewing.

At times, it feels like there's a hint of Warrenball without the Warren. The former Wales coach hated that name, but the tactic was simple. Work across the field, winning collisions with big backs until you soften them up.

Right now, Wales are working across the field looking for something but don't seem to have the set-up in place to continually win collisions or even avoid them. As such, it's hard to establish the DNA of this team.

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However, there are some recurring themes. The breakdown remains a constant issue. Rucks are either woefully undermanned or Wales are losing too many bodies to the deck. It's a rarity that Wales get one-man rucks as there always seems to be threat that they'll be turned over or lose momentum.

That stems from their inability to win collisions. Pivac's side aren't full of big ball carriers, but at the minute it feels like little is being done to dictate collisions. Wales seem unable to find a gameplan that helps them avoid them through ball movement in wider channels, but they have shown glimpses of promise in the past - and they certainly did under Gatland - with a pick-and-go game targeting fringes where defences can't generate any linespeed.

For now though, Wales seem content to continue to play touchline-to-touchline in an effort to avoid collisions.

But unlike last year's Six Nations, when teams such as England bought into the threat of the pod system and were caught narrow as a result, it's all so disconnected and easy to read - with no real fixing lines to sit down defenders - that teams can just flood the line with bodies and let Wales go nowhere.

All the talk will be on how Wales fix their defence after the All Blacks game, but the attack still remains under the microscope.

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