Another match, another inquest into the state of Welsh rugby. This time, the hand-wringing is particularly fervent, for Wales stand on the brink of an unwanted threshold. Should they lose to Australia in Cardiff on Sunday they will surpass their longest run of Test defeats.
Losing to Fiji last Sunday was upsetting on any number of levels, but the sharpest pain was the fact it was a 10th defeat in a row, equalling the run under Steve Hansen that stretched from 2002 to 2003, the last time they collected the wooden spoon in the Six Nations.
Until this year, of course, when they picked up another after a couple of decades of unrivalled success. Now the Wallabies stride into town, suddenly feeling a bit better about themselves after their own recent travails were eased by a dramatic win against England at Twickenham.
Fiji, Australia, feeling better about themselves – these are all achingly familiar terms to Wales, whose recent travails extend back a few years, but were temporarily eased by their World Cup, or at least their pool campaign. Wales negotiated that without mishap, riding their luck against Fiji in the opener in one of the games of the tournament, before fairly dismantling Australia. See? Easy.
So recent and yet so far away. Of the side that started against Fiji and Australia, only five remain for this weekend – and none of the back division. Having topped their group in 2023 with a win against Georgia, just over 400 days ago, Wales were beaten by Argentina in the quarter-final and have not won a Test since.
In truth, their decline pre-dated the World Cup and was not reversed during it. Enough players from their golden generation remained to reassure the younger, but Fiji still play against their tier-one rivals with one hand tied behind their back (as opposed to the two they had trussed before the Drua, the first professional team on the islands, were created), and Australia had sunk to a low they must hope marks a nadir from which they might now possibly be pulling up.
Even before it happened, Wales’s defeat by Fiji had looked a lot less unlikely than the previous one they had suffered against them, at the 2007 World Cup, which sparked a riot of celebration, not just in Fiji, such underdogs were the latter. Now Fiji feel like a coming force. Wales less so.
In the three championships since they last won the Six Nations, with four wins out of five in 2021, Wales have won two matches out of 15. As this record-equalling run will attest, Wales were nought from five this year.
But there were encouraging signs on tour in, of all places, Australia in the summer, where a young side lost two Tests with credibility, some might even say misfortune. Warren Gatland, principal architect of Wales’s most glorious ventures this century, has returned, and his rebuild is continuing. Whether it is even possible with that golden generation all but slipped away and the domestic game far from in the rudest of health remains to be seen, but there were enough signs of life in attack against Fiji to keep the hope alive.
Tomos Williams and Mason Grady are absent through injury for Sunday’s game, replaced by Ellis Bevan and Tom Rogers respectively, while Jac Morgan, captain for those pool matches against Fiji and Australia last year, returns on one flank, with James Botham coming in on the other.
One positive for Wales is that Australia’s brand new shiny toy, Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, is demoted to the bench, after his impressive debut – indeed, his first senior match in union – against England.
Less positively, he is replaced by Samu Kerevi, who will win his 50th cap, having not played Test rugby since the World Cup.
Will Skelton is another returnee who needs little introduction, while Joe Schmidt covers the loss of his captain, Harry Wilson, by introducing Seru Uru to the back row for his first start.
Elsewhere, the experienced Nic White comes in at scrum-half, Allan Alaalatoa replaces Taniela Tupou and is captain to boot, and the injured Dylan Pietsch is replaced on the wing by the match-winner against England, Max Jorgensen.
It looks a more than useful Wallabies lineup, guided by a Kiwi who knows almost as much about winning in Europe as Gatland himself. Wales are staring down a barrel. Should the hosts pass that dreaded milestone with another defeat, they must regroup for the visit of South Africa the week after, before another Six Nations campaign. All of which makes winning on Sunday quite desperately important.
