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Wales Online
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Matthew Southcombe

Wales are in for a tough Six Nations but it could be a watershed moment

There's just something about the psyche of a Welsh rugby supporter these days.

No matter the context, when the first whistle blows of this year's Six Nations, Wales will be expected to win the championship.

It is impossible to overlook the fact that Wales will be without 739 caps at the start of this tournament. Players who will go down as legends of the game in this country are absent.

To put faces on that. This will be the first time Wales have been without one of Ken Owens or Alun Wyn Jones in an opening Six Nations match since 2006, which is before either of them made their Test debut.

Jones is, of course, the leader. Owens is the emotional heartbeat of the side. The voids left by those two alone are difficult to quantify.

But the injuries are well-documented. Some will gloss over them and say they don't matter, everybody has injury problems, right?

Except, injury problems to this degree do matter. Mention of the absentees back when Wales' squad was announced last month was met with the predictable bluster from opposing fans: "Getting your excuses in early, lads?"

Fair enough. It may be an excuse, but it is a valid one.

The options to replace skipper Jones and his 149 caps are Ben Carter (five caps), Seb Davies (13 caps), Will Rowlands (13 caps), Christ Tshiunza (two caps).

Want to replace Justin Tipuric's 85 caps? Pick from Taine Basham (seven caps), Ellis Jenkins (14 caps), Jac Morgan (uncapped).

This is not a comment on the quality of those players stepping up but it illustrates a point. This feels like a watershed moment for the evolution of this Wales squad as it builds towards the 2023 Rugby World Cup.

“You’d like to think that, out of the vocal people who expect us to win five from five, everyone out there that follows rugby will know exactly where we’re at," Pivac said at the Six Nations launch.

Indeed.

And it's not just the absences. There is another point. Even the players that are available, by Pivac's own admission, are undercooked.

Scarlets players in particular - of which there are seven in the squad - have had their schedules decimated by Covid-enforced cancellations.

Since the autumn campaign, the region has taken the field just three times in two months.

With all things considered, if this was an autumn campaign, we'd be calling it a free hit for Wales. But because it's the Six Nations, we search for reasons why something special could happen.

And there's nothing wrong with that. Optimism and expectation come with the territory when you've won it four times in the last decade. Players will welcome that.

But there should also be a recognition that all signs are pointing towards this being a tough campaign for Wales.

Now for the good news.

At the 2019 Rugby World Cup, ahead of the bronze medal match against New Zealand, a misled foreign journalist asked skipper Jones how special it would be to finish his career playing against the All Blacks on Friday.

Suffice to say the question was met with disdain and those paying close attention know that Jones will not entertain talk of retirement. It is not in his nature.

That being said, the overriding question then was can he make it through to the 2021 Lions tour. Well, he made a mockery of that.

But if you had told me then that, 18 months out from the next World Cup, there would not yet have been a changing of the guard, I simply could not have fathomed it.

That, of course, is a testament to the remarkable staying power of those in the latter stages of their Test careers.

But this upcoming campaign feels like a significant moment in this particular World Cup cycle.

Through necessity, a raft of relatively inexperienced faces will be thrown into the biggest pressure cooker outside of a Rugby World Cup and we'll see which ones flourish and which ones don't.

Speaking on BT Sport over the weekend, former captain Sam Warburton said: “I mean this with the least disrespect to the players picked but it’s probably one of the weakest Six Nations squads I’ve seen picked for a long time because of the lack of leaders.

“But I’ve seen it coming. I thought there would be a changing of the guard after the World Cup but there hasn’t been a whole lot.

“Then I thought after the Lions tour there would be an even bigger changing of the guard and it’s only, kind of, been forced through injury because a lot of the guys who are older... you know what it’s like, you hit 30 years of age and if you can play 20 games a year, that’s great.

“But a lot of these boys are getting injured for big chunks of the season.

“But in a way, it forces Wales’ hand. They have to pick some younger guys. They’ve had to put faith in guys like Rees-Zammit because the likes of George North are not available. They’ve got to give these boys a go.

“It’s a little bit of a blessing in disguise. Of course you want all your big hitters out for the Six Nations but with a World Cup looming 18 months away... and obviously the priority is the here and now, and Wales have got the best squad that they possibly can.

“But there’s going to come a time when there’s going to be a big generation of players in the Welsh squad move on, and that’s going to happen in the next 24 months, maximum."

And maybe that's the lense through which we must view the 2022 Six Nations.

Of course there is a chance - there is always a chance - that Wales could do something monumental in this tournament.

Players should go out relieved of the shackles of expectation.

Those within the camp won't say it - they can't - but the bar for what constitutes a good Six Nations this time around is not as high as it normally is.

It feels like this campaign may well be tough to watch as a Welsh supporter.

But in 18 months time, we may look back on it as a crucial stepping stone.

Want the latest Welsh rugby news sent straight to you? Look no further.

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