To say Wayne Pivac needs to start drilling down names into his World Cup plans must be an early candidate for understatement of the year.
Quite how many players are inked in at this stage we cannot know after a Six Nations that ended chaotically for Wales, but maybe we can have a stab at projecting how Pivac’s squad will look. Alun Wyn Jones has already suggested Pivac is likely to start cutting players, while Dan Biggar revealed post-match talks between the squad saw them conclude it may have been the end of the road for some players.
The coach is allowed to pick 33 for the tournament in France next year, up two from previous global bashes, with player-welfare driving the change.
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Back three (5)
Even from 18 months out, Liam Williams and Josh Adams looked certain to be part of Pivac’s plans. Both are Test animals and both can play on the wing or at full-back if required.
It seems a safe bet to assume Louis Rees-Zammit will be in the party as well.
While he may have had a patchy recent Six Nations, he is a player with extreme pace who can score extraordinary tries. Given Wales’ ongoing struggles to develop an attacking game, it would be more than a shade bizarre for the coaches to opt to overlook potentially one of their best offensive players. Undoubtedly, though, he needs to improve his defensive game.
Alex Cuthbert’s strong running and physicality offers Pivac something different and Gareth Anscombe can cover fly-half as well as full-back. Could he offer a playmaking option at 12 as well? It’s just a thought.
Johnny McNicholl will be there or thereabouts, possibly competing with Cuthbert for a spot. Ioan Lloyd, Owen Lane and Mat Protheroe will be among others pushing hard to impress Pivac. George North can switch to wing in the event of injuries.
Likely selections: Liam Williams, Alex Cuthbert, Gareth Anscombe (utility) Josh Adams, Louis Rees-Zammit.
Centres (4)
It’s been a troublesome area throughout the season, with much chopping and changing in selection. George North’s return to fitness should settle matters down a tad, with the big man set for a strike-runner’s role. He’s nailed down, and Tompkins must be close to enjoying that status as well, with the Saracen the form centre in Wales’ squad before taking a knock to the head after the England game.
Owen Watkin has impressed Wales’ coaches over the past two months and should have an opportunity to consolidate his position in the set-up on tour in South Africa this summer. That may be that, but if Wales do take a fourth centre it’s not inconceivable Johnny Williams will travel.
Willis Halaholo and Jonathan Davies have just featured in the Six Nations but injuries interrupted Williams’ challenge for a place. He has emerged from a tough couple of weeks with the Scarlets with his reputation intact and he has shown he can played at 13 as well as 12.
Midfield woes during the recent tournament may not help Halaholo and Davies. At this stage, Scott Williams doesn’t seem on the radar.
Likely selections: George North, Owen Watkin, Nick Tompkins, Johnny Williams.
Fly-halves (2)
Dan Biggar continues to split opinion.
One writer had him down as his player of the Six Nations, saying he was “now one of the great statesmen of the game. Up there with Barry John and Gareth Edwards”. Someone on social media said he had a “shocking” tournament.
Biggar will shrug and get on with it, knowing that he’ll never satisfy all of the people all of the time. But Pivac knows his worth as a leader and as a fierce competitor.
The challenge for the coach is to find players who can offer creative options outside Biggar. Gareth Anscombe can cover fly-half and full-back. Callum Sheedy needs to improve at Test level, but Wales have invested a fair amount of time in him.
Likely selections: Dan Biggar, Callum Sheedy.
Scrum-halves (3)
Tomos Williams had been playing well prior to picking up a bump against France. He will head for France as Wales’ number one scrum-half. Kieran Hardy will travel as well.
Pivac doesn’t seem a fan of Rhys Webb, who hasn’t started a Test for Wales since 2020, despite consistent form for the Ospreys. Lloyd Williams has also been out in the cold.
So Gareth Davies should be in the party as well. He had an outstanding game for the Scarlets against Glasgow recently but failed to impact on the match against Italy. Pivac will want other challengers to emerge, but right now there are no obvious ones on the horizon.
Likely selections: Tomos Williams, Kieran Hardy, Gareth Davies.
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Props (6)
Again, choice is limited, with Pivac not appearing to be wild about Nicky Smith, despite the 41-cap man playing well at regional level. He makes ground with ball in hand, he can scrummage, achieve turnovers and he’s a good defender. Quite what else he needs to do to impress Wayne Pivac and Jonathan Humphreys is a mystery Miss Marple might struggle to get her head around.
Corey Domachowski? Potentially, he could threaten Rhys Carre’s place in Pivac’s plans.
There again, Carre is a unit who takes the ball forward. If Wales and Cardiff can improve his scrummaging he could yet develop into the player he once promised to be.
Pivac must pray each night Tomas Francis stays fit, with the Ospreys man out on his own as the leading tight-head scrummager in Welsh rugby. Samson Lee faces a long time on the sidelines with injury, with the jury still deliberating on WillGriff John at Test level.
Dillon Lewis didn’t show for the second half against Italy. He’s good in the loose but as an international-class scrummager we still need to see more. Even now, Leon Brown hasn't shown himself to be the finished article, either.
But Pivac isn’t overly blessed with options here.
Likely selections: Gareth Thomas, Wyn Jones, Rhys Carre, Tomas Francis, Dillon Lewis, Leon Brown.
Hookers (3)
One of the few areas that worked for Wales during the Six Nations.
Ryan Elias improved as a starter as the tournament went one, tackling and carrying himself to a standstill in some games. There were a few lineout glitches, but not all were his fault.
A pat on the back for Dewi Lake, too. He took every chance that came his way and despite a couple of errors against Italy, he emerged as one of Wales’ best players on the day — not bad for a youngster making his first start at Test level. He’s tough, a strong carrier, a big hitter and he competes for ball at the breakdown. Lake also plays with a lot of emotion. Potentially, the sky’s the limit for him. Over the next year he could push hard to be considered Wales’ first-choice hooker.
It’s a punt to fill the quota of hookers, with Ken Owens having sat out Wales’ international programme this term because of a back injury. But if he can return to fitness and form, the emotional touchstone of the Wales team of so many past campaigns makes it.
Likely selections: Ryan Elias, Dewi Lake, Ken Owens.
Second rows (4)
The two front-line Wales locks in the Six Nations will head for France, with the likelihood Alun Wyn Jones will join them.
If his effort last weekend wasn’t perfect, allowance ought to be made for the game being his first in five months. If he is not firing at his very best this time next year, then of course it could be time for a serious conversation.
But don’t bank on such a scenario playing out. Jones will likely make any decision for Pivac if his form is not where it should be. Right now, it is not obvious any young locks are coming through quickly enough to challenge him for his World Cup place. Rightly, he will want to challenge Adam Beard and Will Rowlands. Let’s see how it goes.
Seb Davies could still be the fourth lock, despite Wales looking at him as a back-rower over the past two Six Nations rounds. Ben Carter has some development to do.
Likely selections: Will Rowlands, Adam Beard, Alun Wyn Jones, Seb Davies.
Back rowers (6)
Four players pick themselves: Josh Navidi, Taulupe Faletau, Justin Tipuric and Ross Moriarty. All of them are proven Test warriors. Wales will hope Christ Tshiunza comes to the party as a hybrid player, capable of playing lock and in the back row. The Exeter Chief has great power, hits hard and with ball in hand can be a sight to behold.
The final pick? A lot can change over 18 months, but Jac Morgan is tough, combative and a breakdown specialist. He is also a player who seems to get better with every game. Right now, he’s looking a fair bet for the World Cup.
Taine Basham and James Botham, Cardiff’s best player on their short tour of South Africa, will lead the challenge, with Aaron Wainwright in the mix as well.
Likely selections: Josh Navidi, Ross Moriarty, Christ Tshiunza, Justin Tipuric, Jac Morgan, Taulupe Faletau.
