Glued to their mobile phones, millions of Ukrainians spent a sleepless night on Friday, after the head of the Wagner mercenary group declared war against his rivals in the Russian military, sparking unprecedented political turmoil in Moscow.
“Events are developing according to the scenario we talked about all last year,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, a key adviser to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. “The start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive finally destabilised the Russian elites, intensifying the internal split that arose after the defeat in Ukraine. Today we are actually witnessing the beginning of a civil war.”
Early on Saturday, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, accused Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, of “treason” after the warlord launched an uprising against Russia’s army.
In audio clips released late on Friday, Prigozhin claimed that a Russian rocket attack had killed scores of his fighters, vowing to take “revenge” and “stop the evil brought by the military leadership of the country”.
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has craved internal instability in Russia as a result of the conflict. On Saturday morning, when news of Wagner’s insurrection circulated, many Ukrainians struggled to believe it was real – until footage shared online appeared to show Wagner troops with tanks and armoured vehicles surrounding government buildings in the Russian city of Rostov, where Prigozhin claimed to have taken over an army base.
“Prigozhin’s group captures military facilities, headquarters and entire cities, meeting almost no resistance on their way, disarming random soldiers and policemen,” said Podolyak. “Putin declares Prigozhin a traitor and an outlaw and announces appropriate orders to the special services, but nothing happens – a management crisis, a de facto loss of power. At the same time, Wagner continues its march to Moscow. Ukraine continues to move along its own path. To the borders of 1991.”
In a comment to Ukraine’s state news agency Suspilne, Ukraine’s military intelligence spokesperson, Andriy Yusov, said that Wagner’s actions in Russia were a “continuation of intra-Russian conflicts” that are a consequence of the military aggression against Ukraine.
“This is a sign of the collapse of the ruling regime, and such processes will intensify,” he added.
While Putin is forced to watch his back, many believe the Russian turmoil will give Ukraine an opportunity to step up its counteroffensive – which, Zelenskiy has admitted, is going “slower than desired” – and boost the morale of its troops grappling with bloody and uncertain battles on the frontlines.
“As the war began, so it will end – inside Russia,” Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s national security and defence council, tweeted. “The process has begun.”
Zelenskiy said: “Anyone who chooses the path of evil destroys himself. Sends columns of soldiers to destroy the lives of another country – and cannot stop them from fleeing and betraying when life resists … [Putin] despises people and throws hundreds of thousands into the war – in order to eventually barricade himself in the Moscow region from those whom he himself armed.
“For a long time, Russia used propaganda to mask its weakness and the stupidity of its government. And now there is so much chaos that no lie can hide it.”
He added: “Russia’s weakness is obvious. Full-scale weakness. And the longer Russia keeps its troops and mercenaries on our land, the more chaos, pain and problems it will have for itself later.”
