Russian Defence Minister Sergei Lavrov says the country’s Wagner mercenary group will continue operations in Mali and the Central African Republic despite its leader’s failed mutiny over the weekend. But questions remain over the future of the group on the African continent.
Wagner has long been seen as an armed extension of Moscow's political, military and economic influence in Africa.
It has some 5,000 troops on the continent, mainly in Mali and the Central African Republic (CAR).
But the attempted mutiny led by leader Yevgeny Prigozhin over the weekend has sent the relationship between Wagner and Moscow into a tailspin.
Prigozhin called off his troops advance towards Moscow on Sunday in exchange for agreeing to go into exile in Belarus, but it's not clear how the rift will impact the group's operations abroad.
Wagner is active in Mali – whose governing junta insists it employs only "Russian instructors" – and in the CAR, where a Wagner executive manages the security of President Faustin Archange Touadera.
Wagner fighters have also been identified in Libya, Mozambique and Sudan.
On Monday Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov sought to reassure the country's partners in Africa, telling Russia Today (RT) the group would continue operations in Mali and the CAR.
Lavrov said Wagner members were working there as "instructors" and that their activities would continue. The revolt, he said, would not affect Russia's ties with "partners and friends".
"I have seen no particular panicking, no change in the attitude of African countries towards the Russian federation. On the contrary," Lavrov said.
Choosing sides
Wagner arrived in Mali in December 2021 at the request of the transitional Malian authorities, who recognise only "state-to-state cooperation".
Mali's leaders have yet to comment on the rift even though they are directly concerned by what happens next.
They face a choice, says lawyer and political scientist Oumar Berté.
“This has undoubtedly made the Malian authorities think again," Berté told RFI's David Baché.
"They had completely changed their strategy by turning to Russia ... as a strategic partner and a reliable partner.
"Whatever the outcome, the political authorities in Mali will have to choose sides between Putin or Prigozhin.”
Mali has a dual partnership with both the Russian state and Wagner.
"Until now this has not made much difference but that could change if the two sides are not reconciled," the Malian-born Berté added.
Before and after
Prigozhin founded Wagner in 2014 to support Russian forces in the war in Donbas, Ukraine. Its existing contract with the Russian army is up for renewal on 1 July.
In addition to providing security, the group is said to profit greatly from exploiting natural resources and propping up regimes that have shown hostility towards the West.
"There will be a before and after [the mutiny], including in Africa, analyst Kelian Sanz-Pascual told RFI.
"We can’t rule out the possibility that Wagner forces will sooner or later end up working as staff for private military companies under the helm of the Ministry of Defence.”
Africa specialist Thierry Vircoulon agrees that a lot hinges on Prigozhin's future.
"Wagner operations in Africa could be reinforced or weakened," he says, highlighting four scenarios.
Wagner could be fully taken over by the Kremlin, or replaced by other private companies close to the Ministry of Defence.
Failing that its operations could be divided up. Prigozhin might hang on to its affairs in Africa on condition he gives up the army deployed in Ukraine, or – the most unlikely option – the status quo may remain.
Both Vicoulon and Sanz-Pascual agree the attempted mutiny has damaged the reputation of both Moscow and Wagner in providing strong, trustworthy security.
"It's never a good thing to have a security provider that seems uncertain and threatened in its own country," says Virculon.
