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Health

WA's delayed COVID-19 peak leaves businesses seeking answers as ongoing restrictions bite

Publican Brittney Hutchen-Craig says it's been a confusing time trying to keep the drinks flowing. (ABC News: James Carmody)

When the WA government introduced its latest round of restrictions, it was Premier Mark McGowan's hope they would only be in place for a month.

After the state was expected to reach its peak last week, but never did, owners of some of the hardest-hit businesses grew concerned their plans for a short hit to their bottom line could be thrown out the window.

Among them was Mandurah publican Brittney Hutchen-Craig, who has become increasingly frustrated with the 150-person cap.

"We don't have any long-term plans at the moment," she said.

"We get a lot of questions of uncertainty from the public, but we don't have further answers for them. We just have to kind of hope for the best but also try to give them some information without contradicting ourselves later on."

Ms Hutchen-Craig had been holding out hope things would ease within a week or two, but plateauing case numbers mean restrictions could be here to stay.

"It might be a very smooth top hill, rather than a pointy mountain," was how epidemiologist Catherine Bennett described what WA could face over the weeks ahead.

Nightclubs all but forced to shut

The uncertainty has also caused concern for Northbridge nightclub owner Chris Patton.

Ordinarily, he would be paying about 40 staff each night to keep a crowd of 400 entertained.

Chris Patton said he's had little choice but to close his nightclub since the start of the month. (Instagram: Butterfly 73)

But being restricted to seated service meant he had little choice but to close his doors while level two restrictions were in place.

"If you've been told you're going to be closed to a particular date then you can budget," he said.

"You really want to keep all your key staff on as well, so it's very mentally draining, just the juggle it's been over the last month or two."

Mr Patton said the last few days had been a wake-up call, with a growing sense restrictions might not be eased by the end of the month.

"We're going to need to slow it down because it's looking like if this peak is delayed, then we may not be able to open again for at least another four to six weeks, which is definitely not news we wanted to hear," he said.

Uncertainty over weeks ahead

As with every stage of the pandemic, there is no way to know what lies ahead.

Two respected epidemiologists who spoke to the ABC about what the next few weeks could look like reached slightly different conclusions about how the peak would unfold.

Catherine Bennett expects the BA.2 sub-variant to contribute to WA's longer peak. (Supplied)

Both Professor Bennett, who is chair of epidemiology at Melbourne's Deakin University, and pro-vice-chancellor of health sciences at Curtin University, Archie Clements, agreed WA was likely a few weeks away from its peak.

Professor Bennett thought it was likely the BA.2 sub-variant was contributing to that.

"What you're gaining in terms of bringing the outbreak under control, you're losing a bit because BA.2 is more infectious, and it's working against that," she said.

"It might mean that the numbers don't quickly turn around and come down in WA … but hopefully it won't push them up much further."

Archie Clements says restrictions are working to manage WA's peak. (ABC News: Keane Bourke)

But Professor Clements said he expected the more transmissible BA.2 would result in a sharper curve.

"The shape of the peak has really got to do with a combination of the public health measures that are put in place, and intrinsic factors that relate to the demography and the geography of our city," he said.

His expectation was that cases would continue to rise for a few weeks, plateau for about a week, and then drop steadily for about six weeks.

Calls for more business support

The state government was yesterday spruiking its $5,000 grants designed to help cafes, restaurants and bars to add or expand their alfresco dining areas.

But that was little use for both Ms Hutchen-Craig and Mr Patton, who said the government's other support to date had not quite hit the mark.

Ms Hutchen-Craig says she's had to put off all events for April until things are clearer.  (ABC News: James Carmody)

They said even the government's level two compensation, which offered between $3,000 and $50,000 to businesses who had suffered a 50 per cent reduction in turnover, would do little to help.

"It's all made with good intention, but the current packages that are available are near on impossible for businesses to meet the requirements," Ms Hutchen-Craig said.

It was a similar problem at Mr Patton's nightclub.

"The government has really tried to do a one-size-fits-all, and I understand obviously they're under pressure, they don't have the time to sit there and bring in specific programs," he said.

"There was a $3,000 grant for rent, but realistically that is not going to help a large venue. We would eat that up in four, five days."

Speaking about the alfresco grant yesterday, Local Government Minister John Carey was tight-lipped about whether further support would be offered to businesses.

"I'm not going to second-guess announcements from the Treasurer, but I say this, this is substantial support that we've already announced," he said.

Restrictions to be reviewed before end of month

Ms Hutchen-Craig and Mr Patton hoped to soon have more clarity about what restrictions could be in place over the weeks ahead.

In response to questions from the ABC, a spokeswoman for Health Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson said while cases were rising, hospitalisations and ICU admissions were "tracking well".

WA's high booster rate has helped limit hospital cases and deaths, Amber-Jade Sanderson says. (ABC News: Keane Bourke)

"Which gives us the confidence to proceed as planned in relation to reviewing level two [restrictions] at the end of this month," she said.

"These measures are based on health advice, will be in place for a modest period of time and will be reviewed by the end of this month."

Ms Hutchen-Craig said she was quickly growing tired of waiting for that announcement to come.

"I think I've just kind of switched them off now because I was just like, they'll let me know if it's something important," she said.

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