Today is the big day!
The WNBA’s 2022 playoffs are slated to begin this evening with a pair of Game 1s. With the league’s new playoff format, gone are the days of the top two seeds getting double byes and avoiding the single elimination rounds.
Instead, the Las Vegas Aces (1) and Chicago Sky (2) will have first-round, best-of-three series against the Phoenix Mercury (8) and New York Liberty (7), beginning tonight.
In case you have the urge to get some bets in, we’ll walk you through some of the best wagers to make ahead of Wednesday’s opening games, including game lines and player props.
Phoenix Mercury at Las Vegas Aces (-16.5)
Game line bet: Aces ML (-2500)
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook
With the Mercury and Aces, we get a rematch of last postseason’s thrilling WNBA semifinals series. But this time it looks different — no Brittney Griner (not with team), Liz Cambage (not in WNBA), Dearica Hamby (knee), Diana Taurasi (quad), or Skylar Diggins-Smith (personal reasons).
The spread being at 16.5 feels like a bit much for me, so I’ll take the moneyline. It’s a win either way.
Player prop bets: Kelsey Plum – O 19.5 pts (-130), A’ja Wilson – O 9.5 rebs (-136)
Kelsey Plum averaged 20.2 points per game during the regular season, which trailed only the Seattle Storm’s Breanna Stewart (21.8). She reached the 20-point mark 19 times during the season, including all three times vs. Phoenix. She’ll do it again on Wednesday night.
Wilson’s 9.5 rebound prop falls just about in line with her season average of 9.4. She landed more than nine boards in 17 of the 36 games she played in this regular season, landing her just shy of reaching double digits in half the games. With Dearica Hamby out, more minutes should be on the way for Wilson, meaning more boards.
Game Lines
Spread: Las Vegas Aces -16.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Las Vegas Aces (-2500), Phoenix Mercury (+1000)
Point Total: O 167.5 (-107), U 167.5 (-115)
New York Liberty at Chicago Sky (-9.5)
Game line bet: Sky ML (-520)
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook
There’s such thing as catching someone off guard, which is what the Liberty will be hoping they can do to the Sky as Sabrina Ionescu and Co. enter Wintrust Arena as the heavy underdogs.
However, these are the defending champions — defending champions who entered last postseason and turned it up many notches. Despite New York having all of the tools and personnel to steal Game 1, I’m not seeing it. Candace Parker won’t let her troops come out lackadaisical. Expect the Sky to have this one in control for most of the game even if the score doesn’t end up being super lopsided.
Player prop bets: Courtney Vandersloot – O 6.5 asts (+102), Sabrina Ionescu – O 18.5 pts (-104), Kahleah Copper – O 16.5 pts (-114)
Courtney Vandersloot’s 6.5 assists per game were her lowest average since the 2016 season, which was also the last time she averaged fewer than 8.0 assists per game. Much of the slowed production can be attributed to Emma Meesseman and Candace Parker making plays out of the high post for others. But even then, I don’t find this prop to be one I bet the under on. It’s playoff time and Sloot will surely get to seven assists.
The New York Liberty goes as Sabrina Ionescu does. It’s nice when Marine Johannes gets going, and with Betnijah Laney back, Sabrina shouldn’t have to do as much heavy lifting. But I still think she will — it’s in her DNA to control games. I like her getting to 20 points on Wednesday night.
Kahleah Freakin’ Copper — you know the name. She burst onto the scene last postseason where she eventually earned the 2021 WNBA Finals MVP honor for her performance against the Mercury. She must know it’s time for another dazzling postseason, seeing that her points jumped from 13.6 to 18.1 per game following the All-Star Break. New York gives up a lot of points off of turnovers and on the fastbreak, which is where Copper shines.
Game Lines
Spread: Chicago Sky -9.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Chicago Sky (-520), New York Liberty (+370)
Point Total: O 166.5 (-110), U 166.5 (-110)
