The curtain goes up on the final battle for overall victory in the 2024 Vuelta a España on Friday with a stage on paper very similar to the one which began the second week of high mountains' challenges - but don't be fooled. Friday's stage is much, much tougher.
Back on stage 12, the first hard day of week 2 of the 2024 Vuelta, the peloton trekked across rugged but not overly difficult terrain in Galicia to a lone classified climb, the category 1 summit finish at Alto de Manzaneda. That stage profile is mirrored with what they face on Friday, with a single final category 1 ascent, the Alto de Moncalvillo, only preceded by one minor difficulty, the mid-stage category 3 Puerto de Pradilla.
However, if the Manzaneda's category 1 status was questionable - while a hefty 16 kilometres long, the gradients rarely rose about 5%. The 9.5-kilometre Moncalvillo is a different story. The last five kilometres in particular of Friday's main challenge are always above 9%, touching 16% in places, and to make matters worse, there are virtually no breaks in the gradient. Essentially it's all uphill or bust.
"It's a really hard climb," says Ion Izagirre (Cofidis), who was part of the Vuelta peloton on the only time the race has previously tackled the Moncalvillo back in 2020 and who will be amongst those tackling it again on Friday afternoon.
"I went to check out the entire route of stage 19 on a training ride before coming here and all the way to the foot of the Moncalvillo, there's not really much worthy of note and it's not very difficult at all," the Basque veteran tells Cyclingnews.
"But the last climb's a really different story. There are virtually no breaks in the ascent so it's really demanding. It's one for a big battle between the overall contenders, for sure."
In 2020 the Moncalvillo's winding, forested upper slopes on stage 8 were certainly capable of producing exactly that sort of intense GC struggle. Richard Carapaz and Primož Roglič, finally second and first overall, engaged in a thrilling, ding-dong duel all the way to the top, with Roglič finally gaining the upper hand and a 13-second advantage by the summit. That wasn't enough for the Slovenian to regain the overall lead back in 2020, but on Friday, with red jersey Ben O'Connor a scant five seconds ahead of Roglič, the same climb may produce a very different story.
"The tarmac's not great, but it's not bad, either, so it shouldn't produce too many problems," Izagirre adds. "But it's the constancy of the gradients that's really tough to handle and which will do the damage."
"The first part above all has a few easier sections, which give you a bit of respite. But in the last two-thirds never stop climbing, it's really steep, there are no breathing spaces at all. So the strongest will come out on top for sure."
With no big climb beforehand, the peloton is therefore likely to be more or less intact in the run-in to the Moncalvillo. So if the climb was set to be approached on the same road as in 2020, it could have made for a fraught dash in the last few preceding kilometres to be certain of a good position near the front.
However, Izagirre says, "In fact, we're coming in from a completely different direction to 2020. This time we're on a wide, straight road that starts to climb even before you hit the foot of the ascent itself. But it's always important to be in the front, anyway."
With a stage victory in the 2020 Vuelta already in his palmares - also on a summit finish at Formigal, which will not be tackled this year - Izagirre says he is "doing very well, finishing the race in good shape and keen to get into the moves."
"But the overall contenders are racing on a different level to mine this year, too, so I've got to go for the breaks."
Izagirre was in a break on Thursday's stage 18 that decided the day's winner, but on Friday, Izagirre agreed the GC battle would surely erupt again on the Moncalvillo.
"Roglič, Enric Mas (Movistar) and Carapaz are the strongest in the race, the red jersey is in their sights and the Vuelta is all but over," he observes. "So they will all want to make an impact."
Get unlimited access to all of our coverage of the 2024 Vuelta a España - including breaking news and analysis reported by our journalists on the ground from every stage as it happens and more. Find out more.
