Nineteen thousand. That was the size of the Conservative majority in Somerton and Frome before Thursday’s byelection. Not only did our brilliant Liberal Democrat candidate, Sarah Dyke, overturn it, she won with a thumping 11,000 majority of her own.
It’s one of the biggest swings in British political history, and a testament to the brilliance of our crack Lib-Dem campaign team, which has now pulled off four incredible byelection victories in just over two years.
Speaking to Somerset residents over the course of the campaign, I heard the same anger and frustration that people are feeling across the country right now. They are angry that while they work hard and make big sacrifices to make ends meet, the Conservatives in government are indulging in their own political soap opera. While they struggle to get a GP appointment, or find a dentist for their children, the Conservatives are so out of touch they don’t even seem to notice.
That anger is what drove thousands of lifelong Conservative voters in Somerton and Frome to switch to the Lib Dems – just as thousands like them did in Chesham and Amersham, North Shropshire, and Tiverton and Honiton at previous byelections. And it is also why thousands of people who usually vote Labour or Green lent us their support to get the Conservatives out.
The people of Somerton and Frome spoke for the whole nation in rejecting Rishi Sunak’s out-of-touch government and demanding change. But the scale of our victory also reflects another phenomenon that is changing the shape of British politics: the resurgence of the Lib Dems in the West Country.
When I was first elected to parliament, in 1997, 14 of my Lib Dem colleagues represented constituencies in the south-west of England – including our leader, the great Paddy Ashdown, who was MP for Yeovil.
It was by far our strongest region, giving us 31% of the vote compared with our 17% nationwide. It has been tougher territory for us in recent general elections, but – as Dyke’s victory shows – we are once again very much a force to be reckoned with in the West Country.
This hasn’t happened overnight. As usual with Lib Dem success, it began in local government. We won a majority on the new unitary Somerset council last year, gaining 37 seats across the county while the Conservatives lost 34. We followed that up with Richard Foord’s amazing victory in the Tiverton and Honiton byelection in Devon, overturning a 24,000 Conservative majority. This May, we won 145 of the 358 council seats across Devon – more than the Conservatives, Labour and the Greens put together.
So why is it happening? In part, it’s the same national crises that people are facing across the country: the cost of living, the environment and, most of all, the NHS. Local health services were by far the number one issue on the doorsteps of Somerton and Frome, just as they are everywhere I go.
At the same time, West Country farmers have been hit hard by the Conservatives’ botched deal with Europe, their new trade deals with Australia and New Zealand that undermine the UK’s high animal welfare and environmental standards, and their mishandling of the transition to the new, better farm payment schemes, with old grants being cut before the new ones are open to all.
Farmers are at the heart of many West Country communities, and the custodians of our countryside. People can see how badly they’ve been let down and taken for granted by the Conservatives.
And, thanks to our historic success in the West Country, people remember what a difference a Lib-Dem MP makes. Many in Somerton and Frome remarked on the stark contrast between David Heath, who was a tireless champion for the area as its Lib Dem MP from 1997 to 2015, and his successor, David Warburton, the absentee Conservative who had not even spoken in parliament for a year and half before finally resigning amid scandal. They wanted a local champion again, and that’s why they have elected Sarah Dyke – someone who will work for her constituents all year round, and never stop fighting for a fair deal for them.
People in the south-west also understand that in most constituencies we are the main challengers to the Conservatives. Just like in many other parts of the country, it’s the Lib Dems – not Labour, and certainly not the Greens – who can get the Conservatives out.
All this means that, just as the Lib Dems are taking big chunks out of the blue wall of traditionally Conservative areas in the home counties, so too are we advancing on their western front. The south-west is turning gold once again.
Ed Davey is the leader of the Liberal Democrats and MP for Kingston and Surbiton
