With six executive vice-presidents balancing political families, geography and gender, Ursula von der Leyen has cemented her personal power in her second term as European Commission president while subtly tilting the EU executive to the right politically and to the east geographically.
The new 27-member commission unveiled on Tuesday illustrates her commitment to making the European economy greener, more competitive and more secure, and her ruthlessness in wielding power to crush critics, reward loyalty and punish those who do not cooperate with her. Her eviction of the powerful French industry commissioner Thierry Breton, who had criticised her personal governance style, and the demotion of Hungary’s Olivér Várhelyi to the health and animal welfare job in a snub to the nationalist Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, illustrate her determination to show who is the boss.
Assuming that the European parliament broadly endorses her appointments, the former German defence minister has created a structure with an array of overlapping portfolios, ensuring that she will be the ultimate arbiter on all key issues – the budget, defence, climate legislation and economic regulation.
The matrix is meant to promote joined-up thinking and help implement the ambitious proposals for an investment-led European industrial renaissance outlined by the former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi in a report unveiled last week, which she mentioned repeatedly in detailed mission letters to each team member. But whether weak and tight-fisted EU governments will be willing to generate the massive funds required to finance those ideas is far from certain.
Von der Leyen’s centre-right European People’s party (EPP), the largest force in the parliament and among member governments, will dominate the college with 14 of the 27 posts, in charge of major beats from economic policy to the EU budget, agriculture, defence and migration. However, she has appeased the Socialists by giving them two vice-presidencies with a big number two slot for the Spanish former deputy premier Teresa Ribera, in overall charge of the green transition, and the leading role in social and employment policy for Roxana Mînzatu of Romania. She has also pacified the weakened liberal Renew Europe group with two vice-presidencies including the foreign policy slot for the former Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas, and a major industrial policy and single market job for Stéphane Séjourné, the outgoing French foreign minister.
She also sought to appease the far-right Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni (who voted against von der Leyen’s reappointment), by giving Italy’s nominee, Raffaele Fitto, a vice-president position with the relatively low-key responsibility for regional cohesion. This is despite Meloni’s government recently passing a law that threatens Italy’s cohesion by allowing richer regions to keep taxes instead of distributing them to the poorer south.
Von der Leyen flexed her muscles to strongarm some countries into withdrawing male nominees and putting forward a woman instead. As a result, the gender balance in the incoming team went from 22% women among the initial candidates to 40% – still short of her objective of parity but a significant improvement. She rewarded countries that nominated women by giving them bigger portfolios, such as Finland’s Henna Virkkunen, who gets a vice-presidency and the crucial digital and security files plus a lead role in coordinating support for Ukraine. Slovenia’s Marta Cos will be in charge of the EU’s eastward enlargement. Von der Leyen downgraded nominees from countries that rebuffed her pressure for more women, such as Malta, whose nominee gets the largely powerless youth, sport and culture portfolio.
Her team is structured so that the socialist and liberal vice-presidents will have EPP watchdogs around them to ensure that policy does not stray from her line, while key functions such as trade, the budget and fiscal policy report directly to her.
Significantly, many of the key portfolios, including those directly related to handling Russia, will be held by commissioners from the EU’s eastern flank – countries that joined the bloc 20 years ago but are still regarded by some western governments as “new member staters”. A duo of former Baltic premiers, Kallas from Estonia and Andrius Kubilius of Lithuania, will be in charge of foreign and defence policy. Poland’s Piotr Serafin will handle the EU budget, with the ultrasensitive task of drafting the next seven-year budget plan on which negotiations will start next year. Given the vast investments required by the green and digital transitions and in European defence, Serafin, who is the right-hand man of the Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, will have to recommend whether to slash old spending programmes, such as agriculture and regional development – even though Poland is the largest recipient of EU cohesion funds – or to substantially raise revenue through European taxes, bigger national contributions or more joint borrowing, or a combination of all three.
The rightward drift of the new lineup responds to the political reality of a surge of far-right and nationalist parties in this year’s European parliament elections, even if the pro-European mainstream retains a majority. At the same time, the commission has responded to the geopolitical reality of a Russian threat that looms ever larger, two and a half years into Vladimir Putin’s brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine, by appointing many commissioners from the east who have responsibility for defence and budgets.
The incoming team will have to implement the new migration and asylum pact, due to come into force in 2026. However, it is already being considered insufficient by many countries that are either imposing unilateral border controls – as Germany is doing – or, like Italy, demanding tougher measures to process asylum applications outside the EU. The Austrian conservative Magnus Brunner will be in charge of migration policy, which could help to pacify the growing far right in his own country.
The European parliament may yet force changes in von der Leyen’s lineup . Some Socialists and Greens are eager to claim the scalps of Fitto and Várhelyi, especially since the latter branded MEPs “idiots” in his first term. But as ever, the hearings will be a game of chicken in which the right will retaliate against Socialist nominees if its own champions are blocked. The result is usually a couple of cosmetic changes.
All in all, the new commission looks a stronger, more united team with fewer obvious rivalries.
Climate activists fear it will be less committed to achieving net zero emission targets and more lenient on polluting industries and agriculture. Yet von der Leyen vowed to stick to implementing the European green deal, for which the key regulations were set in the last legislature. The challenge for her new team is to make greening Europe an economic and technological boost for our ageing continent, while helping farmers, businesses and poorer households along on the journey. That’s a big ask.
