Some people are obsessed by American political campaign debates. Specifically, pundits are obsessed, journalists are obsessed, and of course the campaigns themselves are more than obsessed.
But most ordinary people? Well, probably a majority tend to catch some of the debate, or a short clip on their news feed or TV, if they remember it is happening at all.
In truth, for all the noise and bustle, there’s little evidence that debates — such as the one held on Tuesday night in Pennsylvania between Republican Mehmet Oz and Democrat John Fetterman — actually move the polls one way or another. That is perhaps even more true in these deeply polarized times, when it often feels like people on either side of the political divide have long made up their mind about everything.
But there have been some exceptions.
Historians point out that the very first televised presidential debate between Republican Vice President Richard Nixon and Democratic Senator John F Kennedy did have an impact. Held on September 26, 1960, in Chicago, the first of four such events is remembered for lots of things, including the pale demeanor of Nixon, who had recently been ill and declined CBS’s offer of make-up for the cameras. It is often said that Kennedy, who opted for the make-up, was considered to have lost the debate by those who listened to it on the radio, but thought to have won by those who watched on TV. Either way, his poll numbers reportedly jumped by five points in the following days and he would narrowly win the presidential race — 49.7 - 49.5 — that November.
Now, that showdown between Fetterman and Oz in Harrisburg, as they seek the open Senate seat for Pennsylvania, is making headlines.
Back in May, days before the vote in the Democratic primary, Fetterman’s campaign said he had suffered a stroke, but that he was “recovering”.
He managed to defeat Democrat Connor Lamb in that primary, and got stuck into the battle against the Trump-backed Oz, a sometimes television doctor who made his fame — and fortune — by appearing onscreen alongside Oprah Winfrey. Fetterman’s team was very good on its social media, and pumped out television adverts pointing out Oz’s multiple homes, his shifting statements on various issues and the fact he most recently lived in New Jersey rather than Pennsylvania.
Ahead of the debate, Fetterman’s campaign tried to lower expectations. Reporters were told that his doctors said verbal halts did not represent a problem with his brain, but rather an auditory processing disorder. He was trying to help himself by making use of closed captioning, that allows a person to process a question more easily than if it is simply spoken.
No one can doubt the Lt Governor’s courage. He knew that getting up on that debate stage, especially with as polished a TV operator as Oz, would expose the limits of his recovery. But the night went worse than expected.
Many were shocked by Fetterman’s performance, the slow way he responded to questions, and the frequent occasions during which he looked lost. It has already opened him up to questions about whether he can do the job he is seeking — and about whether certain parts of the media, along with his campaign, covered up the extent of his illness.
Fetterman himself sought to address the elephant in the room in his opening remarks. “Let’s talk about the elephant in the room: I had a stroke. He’s never let me forget that,” he said, of Oz. “It knocked me down, but I’m gonna keep coming back up.”
Again, credit to Fetterman — but will that be enough?
Pennsylvania is a true battleground state. Biden narrowly won it in 2020, defeating Trump 50 - 49. Polls already show this Senate race a statistical tie, with the Real Clear Politics average giving a Fetterman +1.3.
In the hours after the debate, Fetterman’s team tried to spin events in their favor, saying Oz had made a gaffe over his position on abortion. That may be true, but it is very possible that for many independent-minded or undecided voters, the thing that will have struck them most was how much Fetterman struggled. His campaign has claimed his critics are “ableist”, but it feels fair to be able to ask if a person you’re electing to national office is able to do the job.
In a close race, a few uncertain voters might be all Oz needs to seal the deal.
Pennsylvania was previously held by Republicans, and as such, it would be a big plus for Democrats if Fetterman wins. One thing for sure is that the debate has placed even more importance in Democrats holding onto vulnerable Senate seats in Georgia and Nevada, if they are to retain control of the upper chamber.
It seems all but impossible for Republicans not to pick up the House, given the dire state of the economy, Joe Biden’s modest approval ratings, and a political history that shows the party that occupies the White House almost without exception loses one chamber or both at the midterms.
With two weeks before election day, Barack Obama and Biden plan to campaign with Fetterman. But first, Obama is set to head to Las Vegas to try and rally up support for incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto and Governor Steve Sisolak.
Donald Trump has also been in Nevada recently, campaigning for Republicans seeking to flip the state. For Obama, given it is Las Vegas and that the stakes are so high, he will be hoping to win big.
