Independent readers have been debating a new poll which suggests support for Reform UK may be slipping – just as the Conservatives begin to close the gap following a heavy defeat at the last general election.
For some, the more significant story is the Tories’ early signs of recovery, with Kemi Badenoch seen as offering a steadier and more credible alternative to Nigel Farage.
Others are less convinced, warning that a single poll does not signal a lasting shift, and that Reform’s support could remain resilient despite recent dips.
Several readers pointed to growing fragmentation on the right, with smaller parties such as Restore Britain potentially drawing voters away from Reform and muddying the picture ahead of upcoming elections.
At the same time, doubts about the Conservatives persist, with critics arguing the party has yet to fully rebuild trust or clearly distinguish itself from Reform on key issues, particularly immigration.
Some suggested that a divided right could have wider consequences, potentially allowing Labour to do well at elections with a relatively modest share of the vote – renewing questions about whether the UK’s electoral system is fit for purpose.
Here’s what you had to say:
Kemi is on the way up
The fall in Reform poll numbers is less interesting than the rise in Tory poll numbers.
There is a steady hand at the Tory tiller, and it shows. People can see the difference between Kemi and the ever-flapping Jenrick or the superficial Farage. There is a policy compass on the Tory ship pointing in the right direction. Kemi is the leader the Tories should have had years ago. Better late than never.
Then, there is the fundamental soundness behind Conservative political philosophy and thought. Notwithstanding the chest-beating hollering of the idle leftist voter on benefits, the creation of wealth has a unique attraction among those who are willing to work and progress. For the hardworking citizen, a legitimate pound in the pocket is better than that pound with the taxman.
Kemi is on the way up, and I hope she remains on that course.
Loss of one nation conservatism
A good Tory party existed some time ago; Boris Johnson kicked out the last vestiges of that. It was called One Nation Conservatism and was about unity, not division. I’m afraid the current version is going after minorities in a way that mimics Reform, UKIP and worse.
Reform versus Restore
Interesting to see the effect Rupert Lowe is having, and the percentage shift away from Reform has all gone to him; it won’t go to Kemi Badenoch.
Anecdotally, a lot of fervent early Reform supporters now seem to prefer Restore, but the pollsters have said they are spread too thin to make much of a dent in Farage’s progress.
Time will tell, though, and May is not far off now...
Populism is easy
Populism is easy, but populists do not have a good track record in running a country effectively. However, parties need to understand that Reform’s growth is a reflection of people’s concern with immigration, and all parties need to ensure they have effective strategies; otherwise, Reform will grow again.
Restore taking support from Reform
If Lowe’s far-right cult are polling at 4 per cent, then that is almost certainly coming from Reform, so it seems logical that, as Restore rise in the polls, albeit by only a very small amount, then that is to Farage’s detriment. Two fascist parties fighting for the same vote.
Electoral system is not fit for purpose
I’m actually quite pleased to see the Tories recovering a little at Reform’s expense. Splits the right-wing vote more evenly. If they are both stuck in the low 20s, then Labour could win by polling in the high 20s.
Though that would be damning proof that our electoral system is not fit for purpose in a multi-party world.
Reform will wipe out Labour
Reform are still however topping the polls and will wipe out Labour in the red wall. If the two main parties hadn’t decided to invoke a policy of mass immigration, which has overall been detrimental to the nation, Reform wouldn’t even exist. And the open borders supporting Greens would make matters ten times worse.
Farage Ferries is doing well
Well, on the bright side, Farage Ferries Ltd. is doing very well. Never before have so many people made the Channel crossing. Brexit made it impossible to return the expats to France. Hence, we welcome so many new settlers here.
Thank you, Nigel.
A mess
Badenoch joined the Conservatives under Cameron. She was elected MP and supported May and then Gove for Tory leader. Badenoch signed the accession protocol for the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, supporting Johnson’s Brexit policy. She then became a minister under Truss, and served under Sunak. She appears to go along with every version of Conservatism and, as leader, she now tries to make her Conservatism distinct from Farage’s Conservatism. A total mess.
Time for ranked-choice voting
Reform’s lead is very shaky.
The Conservatives will gain now Reform have taken their Boris-era cretins.
Those attracted to Reform because they offer change have the Greens in England, Plaid and SNP elsewhere.
There’s probably a chunk of support that will go back to Labour if immigration stays as is and the NHS improves.
Restore are also taking the true believers from Reform.
Soon everyone is going to be around 20 per cent. Time for ranked-choice voting.
Trump factor and distrust of Tory promises
Trump is unlikely to survive as US president until the next UK election, and a great deal can happen between now and then. The Tories are taking Reform support partly because of the Trump factor, but also because they are trying to appear more like Reform themselves. The voters need to be reminded that the Tories have made many promises in the past along the same lines as they are making today, only to betray them once in power.
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