War and peace are becoming indistinguishable in the Persian Gulf. Both the Iranians and the Americans claim to want peace, but won’t conduct negotiations, at least directly and in the open. They agree to a ceasefire but constantly violate it. They condemn one another’s blockades, but refuse to lift them.
Bizarre propaganda videos are lobbed at each other – Lego figures from Tehran, video game images from the Pentagon – to the dismay of the rest of the world. Each side speaks with a forked tongue. As Donald Trump points out so often – the nearest he can get to nuance – Iran lacks a single strong man with whom he can do business (because the Americans, it’s worth noting, assassinated the last one, Ayatollah Khamenei).
So the messages emanating from the Iranian regime can vary. Yet the same applies to the Trump administration itself. In the space of a few hours, the following transpired. First, the secretary of defence, Pete Hegseth, asserted that Operation Epic Fury can be escalated. Then Marco Rubio, secretary of state, declared it over and put the emphasis on expanding Project Freedom to get shipping moving through the Gulf.
At that point, they maintained the ceasefire was in force, despite Iran launching some missiles and the US sinking some Iranian attack dinghies. The policy status quo changed yet again when President Trump contradicted both of them, at least in part, saying Epic Fury may be at an end and Project Freedom has been paused – provided the Iranians agree to some as yet unspecified and unpublished peace deal. If not, then the ceasefire will be over.
It is absurd, but preferable to the alternative, seemingly at least postponed for now, of both sides engaging in an escalation in fighting and a spread of the war once again across the region. These days, this counts as good news, even as the Israelis are doing their best to provoke Iran and destabilise the situation by bombing what appear to be predominantly civilian targets in southern Lebanon – Benjamin Netanyahu being consistent in the nihilistic pursuit of his version of his nation’s security.
The convenient truth behind this war and the intermittent diplomatic efforts to end it is that both sides are looking for a way out. There is a reason why their muted actions and their often fiery words do not match up, which is that peace is in their respective best interests, not escalation, and that will continue to drive events.
For President Trump, the pressures are twofold. There is the economic damage being inflicted on US business and the world economy, and the resulting polite demands to end the war from friends and rivals alike – especially China. Mr Trump will meet President Xi next week, and their talks, which might be awkward, would get off to a better start if the normal flow of oil and other commodities to China and the rest of east Asia from the Gulf could be resumed.
It may be no coincidence that the Iranian foreign minister is presently in Beijing, and is no doubt being made aware of Chinese views on the conflict. As by far Iran’s most important ally, China can do much to push Iran to settle with the Americans, and worry about the details later. Mr Trump knows – and has publicly declared – that if the Republicans lose control of Congress in the November elections then he will be impeached, and no amount of gerrymandering between now and then will save him. He has a great personal interest in bringing an end to the blunder he made in February. Under no circumstances can he allow himself to approach the midterms with gas at $5 a gallon.
For all their bravado and lack of democratic accountability, neither can the leaders of the Islamic Republic last indefinitely under a comprehensive American blockade and with China making clear they want the Strait open – and fast. They need trade to grow.
Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been stoked rather than assuaged by Mr Trump’s war, because they can see how a nuclear-armed power such as North Korea is immune from American attack. Yet they have shown repeatedly in the past a willingness to limit their activities by treaty and under international supervision, and might do so again. Or at least agree to further talks on the issue after they and the Americans open up the Strait of Hormuz, and the US Navy withdraws its armada. Much can still go very wrong, but there is some sense now that Washington and Tehran have looked over the brink and decided to step back. At least for now.
