Almost a decade on from the EU referendum, and about five years since Brexit was formally enacted, there is sufficient distance to take a view on the impact of the narrow “Leave” result – 52 per cent to 48 per cent, as few people will need reminding. Such a margin was unlikely to settle matters; if it was anything, it was more of an uncertain vote of confidence in Britain’s past than its future.
It is already clear that it has not lived up to expectations. For example, Daniel Hannan, now a Conservative peer and one of the most dedicated Eurosceptics, made a rather ethereal video about what life would be like for the British as they celebrated their “Independence Day”, around now, in 2026. The UK was apparently destined to be a global leader in the new technologies, enjoy cheaper energy and food prices, and generally be better off outside the EU’s supposedly stultifying single market and customs union. Of course, to be fair to Lord Hannan, he might not have foreseen the war in Ukraine or Donald Trump’s tariffs; but it is also true that solid economic research has shown that the nation is between 5 and 10 per cent worse off than it would otherwise be.
