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The Conversation
The Conversation
Politics
Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Voice support falls in Newspoll to new low, but is up in Resolve though still well behind

The referendum on the Indigenous Voice to parliament will be held on Saturday. Polls close at 6pm AEDT in the south-eastern states, 6:30pm in South Australia, 7pm in Queensland, 7:30pm in the Northern Territory and 9pm in Western Australia.

I expect counting to be faster than at a federal election, as there’s just one question with a yes/no response, not multiple candidates. Ordinary votes cast at election day or pre-poll booths should be counted on election night. Postal and absent votes will be counted in the following weeks.

For a referendum to succeed, it requires a majority in at least four of the six states as well as a national majority. Polls imply there is no realistic chance of a national “yes” majority, so the double majority is a moot point.

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