Russian President Vladimir Putin must pay an unacceptable cost if he decides to invade Sweden or Finland following their formal request to join NATO, an expert has claimed.
The Kremlin has warned it would have to take retaliatory military steps in response to the Nordic nations seeking to join the US-led alliance.
Putin sees NATO's eastward expansion as a threat to Russia ’s borders and is displeased with the increased western alliance with Ukraine — one of the motives behind the devastating invasion.
To avert the war spilling over the border, the UK and other NATO nations must show "with certainty" that Russia will "pay an unacceptable cost" should it carry out attacks outside of Ukraine, Dr Martin Smith, a defence expert at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst told the Mirror.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine propelled Finland to leave behind its long history of neutrality and seek NATO membership.
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, was asked whether Finland’s membership would be a threat, to which he said: “Definitely.” Sweden has since followed Finland in confirming it will also apply to join the alliance.
Sergei Ryabkov, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, warned that the two Nordic countries should have "no illusions" that Putin will "put up with it."
He warned that the move was “another grave mistake with far-reaching consequences” and the “general level of military tension will increase”.
Both countries have deemed joining the US-led NATO alliance as a grave and unnecessary provocation of Moscow, but they now feel the only threat to European security is Russia.
Finland has bore the brunt of Putin's threats over the years, having faced off military planes in their airspace and confronting Russian submarines chasing after Finnish research vessels in international waters.
When Finland joins the alliance, it will see the size of Russia’s land border with NATO double.
Dr Smith believes that the UK is a "pivotal player" during this time of high tension, as they are working with other NATO member states to "practice operating together in joint military training."
In Estonia, British troops and armoured vehicles have strengthened NATO's uplift to Eastern Europe and there are also troops embedded into a Finnish Armoured Brigade, with participation from other partners such as the US, Latvia and Estonia.
The Ministry of Defence said the troops are working together to deter Russian aggression in Scandinavia and the Baltic states.
Enlarging NATO is the opposite of what Putin wanted to do, should he invade Finland then there will be a mechanism in place to "facilitate necessary and appropriate military deployments onto the territory of Finland from UK national assets", says Dr Smith.
He continued: "If there was a Russian attack, then the whole basis of NATO planning is to bring in serious reinforcements from elsewhere in Europe, such as from Germany and from the United Kingdom."
On Monday, Putin's troops were seen moving nuclear-capable missiles towards its border with Finland. A video posted shows the deployment of mobile Iskander missiles purportedly from a motorway on the way to Vyborg, a western Russian town close to the Finnish border.
Dmitry Suslov from the National Research University Higher School of Economics in Moscow warned the Washington Post that if the United States or Britain establish bases in Finland, Russia will have “no choice but to deploy tactical nuclear weapons to target those bases."
Last week, British Prime Minister agreed on mutual security pacts with Sweden and Finland, saying the UK will come to their aid should either nation come under attack.
He said the security agreement would “fortify Europe’s defences for generations to come." But Smith is wary that the current forces in place would not be sufficient to be able to hold the surface military attack from Russia and push it back.
As part of the new security agreements, Britain will offer to increase the deployment of personnel and assets from the RAF, Royal Navy and army and deepen intelligence-sharing.
Russian lawmaker Vladimir Dzhabarov gave a grave warning to Finland, saying their accession to NATO could lead to “the destruction of their country”.
He continued: “Finland, which has been successfully developing all these years thanks to close trade and economic ties with Russia, would become a target.”
Should such an attack occur, then Smith says NATO would switch to an operational effort, which is "putting forces in place to punish the Russian attackers."
