Vladimir Putin is considering deploying heavy T-14 Armata main battle tanks into Ukraine, British defence chiefs said on Thursday.
But they argued it will be a small number and “primarily for propaganda purposes” as Moscow is only believed to have a fleet of them “in the low tens”.
They also claimed that Russian commanders are “unlikely to trust the vehicle in combat” given the problems in its development.
In its latest intelligence update, the Ministry of Defence in London said: “Russia is likely considering deploying a small number of its new T-14 Armata main battle tanks in Ukraine.
“In late December 2022, imagery showed T-14s on a training area in southern Russia: the site has been associated with pre-deployment activity for the Ukraine operation.
This followed pro-government Russia media outlets claiming T-14s were being prepared for deployment. However, it is unclear whether Russia has yet moved the type into Ukraine.”
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 19 January 2023
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) January 19, 2023
Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/HRZcI9ke7Y
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/VWcroX4ASx
The briefing added: “Any T-14 deployment is likely to be a high-risk decision for Russia. Eleven years in development, the programme has been dogged with delays, reduction in planned fleet size, and reports of manufacturing problems.
“An additional challenge for Russia is adjusting its logistics chain to handle T-14 because it is larger and heavier than other Russian tanks.
“If Russia deploys T-14, it will likely primarily be for propaganda purposes. Production is probably only in the low tens, while commanders are unlikely to trust the vehicle in combat.”
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— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) January 19, 2023
In late December 2022, imagery showed T-14s on a training area in southern Russia: the site has been associated with pre-deployment activity for the Ukraine operation. pic.twitter.com/YzUnQ0147p
Britain, the US, Ukraine and its allies are fighting an information war against Putin’s regime so their briefings need to be treated with caution, however, they are far more believable than the propaganda issued by the Kremlin.
The latest MoD report may have been released to prepare the ground for the UK to send Challenger II tanks to Ukraine.
Poland is ready to supply German-built Leopard tanks.
However, Berlin is reportedly refusing to give the go-ahead for these tanks to be sent to Ukraine, or for Germany to itself supply Leopards, until the US agrees to provide Kyiv with Abrams tanks.
US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin was due to press Germany’s new Defence Minister Boris Pistorius on Thursday to allow for the transfer of German-made tanks to Ukraine, U.S. officials said, as the two countries remained at loggerheads over the issue.
Germany will allow German-made tanks to be sent to Ukraine to help its defence against Russia if the United States agrees to send its own tanks, according to a German government source.
But US officials publicly and privately insist that Washington has no plans to send US-made tanks to Ukraine for now, arguing that they would be too difficult for Kyiv to maintain and would require a huge logistical effort to simply run.
“The secretary (of defence) will be pressing the Germans on this,” one senior US defence official said.
The US official said supplying Ukraine with German-made Leopard tanks made the most sense as a number of countries already had them and were willing to transfer them quickly.
The United States has committed roughly $24 (£19.5) billion to help Ukraine to defend itself against Russian forces.
A second US official said President Joe Biden’s administration was set to approve a new aid package to Ukraine, worth more than $2 (£1.6) billion.
The package, which could be announced as early as Friday during a meeting of defence leaders at an airbase in Germany, would likely include Stryker armored vehicles for Kyiv, but not M1 Abrams tanks.
The United States aims to break the dynamic of grinding warfare and near-frozen front lines in Ukraine with newly announced military capabilities that it hopes will breath fresh momentum into Kyiv’s battle against Russian forces, a senior Pentagon official said on Wednesday.
But Colin Kahl, the Pentagon’s top policy adviser, said the Pentagon still was not prepared to meet Kyiv’s calls for gas-guzzling M1 Abrams main battle tanks.
Some Eastern European officials have publicly called on Germany to allow the transfer of Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki on Monday urged Germany to send Ukraine the weaponry it needed to take the fight to invading Russian soldiers, lacing a speech in Berlin with implicit criticisms of Olaf Scholz’s government.
Britain has said that it would send 14 Challenger 2 tanks, its main battle tanks, along with additional artillery support to Ukraine, a step officials hope will open the door for Germany to make similar moves.
Some US officials remain hopeful that they can convince Germany to allow the transfer of third party tanks to Ukraine.
“We are very optimistic that we will make progress on this requirement by the end of the week,” a second US official said.
