Vladimir Putin is set to "put the screws harder and harder" into Ukrainians as the war hits its one year anniversary and has not reached the aims he had hoped for, an expert has claimed.
Today marks one year since the warmonger defied all expectations and ordered tanks to roll across the border into Ukraine, subsequently killing close to 10,000 civilians in a year-long conflict.
Marc Garlasco, a war crimes investigator who analysed Russian activity in Syria for the United Nations, told The Mirror: "There's not an 'oh my god after one year in Syria, the Russians started doing this' moment.
"But every time they [Syria and Russia] had their back against the wall, the Russians would start to put the screws into the Syrian population harder and harder until they broke.
Follow The Mirror's blog on the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine here
"I think that's what we're going to be seeing happen. Unfortunately, Ukrainian civilians are going to continue to pay the brunt of this."
Russia is not anywhere near close to achieving its stated war aims and a recent estimate by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) suggests it has lost 40-50 per cent of its prewar tank fleet.
America’s top general, Mark Milley, recently said Russia had already lost tactically and strategically and that it was unlikely either side was close to achieving its objectives.
Russia formally entered the Syrian civil war as President Bashar al-Assad’s rule was waning. Russia not only bombed military targets but also began bombing hospitals and medical facilities, killing between four and six thousand civilians according to Airwars.
Russia itself still publicly maintains no civilians have been harmed in its strikes in Syria— much like it is claiming in Ukraine today.
"Looking at what happened in Syria, there's a clear playbook that the Russians are are referring to as they conduct this conflict," Mr Garlasco said.
He continued: "I don't think that the timeframe specifically [of the one year anniversary] is the most important issue. I think it's the the point that Russia is now facing more opposition and the war has gotten harder for them.
"And when we look at the war in Syria, when they faced opposition, they were able to then use certain things to bypass opposition and get success."
The former Pentagon intelligence analyst, points towards airstrikes.
Mr Garlasco says the airstrikes that we've seen thus far in Ukraine have been minimal in comparison to what we saw in Syria.
"Part of that is because of the tenacity of the Ukrainian Air Force and air defences," he says but fears they may ramp up.
He continues: "I think one of my big concerns would be that we're going to see a concerted effort by the Russians to overwhelm Ukrainian air defences, and then go in with massive airstrikes."
The Atlantic Council wrote in its recent report: "Nearly three years later and eight hundred miles north, [attacks] are exactly what is happening, but in a different conflict."
The report details specific evidence which shows Russian warplanes attacking medical facilities in both Syria and Ukraine.
Of the 601 attacks on medical facilities documented by Physicians for Human Rights throughout the conflict, 244 are likely attributed to Russian forces.
From February 24, 2022, through May 23, the Ukrainian Healthcare Centre, reported attacks on or damage to 137 medical facilities.
It is probably safe to say that the current trajectory of the conflict is going much better for Ukraine than for Russia – and that the continuing influx of new weapons from the west will maintain that trajectory.
The World Health Organisation puts the rate even higher, with an average of approximately two attacks on medical facilities per day, surpassing rates of medical facility attacks seen in the deadliest spates of violence during the conflict in Syria.
It is not just strikes Mr Garlasco fears but an uptick in war crimes too: "Putin will resort to direct attacks on civilians when he is failing.
"We're going to see potentially a ratcheting up in the war crimes being committed by the Russians and potentially more widespread civilian harm, that is my fear."
