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correspondents Nick Dole and Tom Joyner in Chisinau, Moldova

Vladimir Putin thought he could play hardball with Moldova's economy and keep it at Russia's mercy. It's backfiring

Angelina Botushan — an 18-year-old student in Moldova's capital, Chisinau — is unsure of the country's future. (ABC News: Nick Dole)

On a bright and sunny day in Moldova's capital Chisinau, there are few signs a war is raging just a couple of hours' drive over the border in Ukraine.

Student Angelina Botushan and her friends take a lakeside walk, sipping takeaway coffees and watching rowers out on the water.

However, the invasion is on everyone's minds.

"We don't know what the future holds for us," Angelina said.

"We never would have thought war would break out in Ukraine.

Moldova is one of Europe's poorest countries, with a population of only about 2.7 million people.

The former Soviet republic's defences would be no match for Russian forces if they were sent into Moldova.

But residents are split on the likelihood of the war spilling into their country.

Angelina is doubtful it will happen, but another woman sitting nearby, Nicoleta, says she has been worried about such an outcome ever since the war began.

"We don't know which direction Russia might invade Moldova from," she told the ABC.

On Saturday, Russian missiles struck fuel depots in the Ukranian port city of Odesa, about 50 kilometres from Moldova's border. Further strikes were reported on Monday.

Russia attacked an oil refinery near the Ukrainian port city of Odesa on the weekend. (Reuters: Nacho Doce)

However, pressure from Russia is nothing new. Moscow has had troops stationed in Moldova for more than 30 years.

Moldova may be Russia's next target

An estimated 1,500 Russian troops patrol the breakaway state of Transnistria, which runs along a 400km stretch of Moldova's border with Ukraine.

The self-proclaimed state was at the centre of a bloody civil war in 1992, when rebels refused to be part of the newly-formed Republic of Moldova following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

While there's been relative peace ever since, the war in Ukraine threatens to reignite tensions.

On Saturday, Ukraine warned Russian troops in Transnistria were mobilising to prepare for "potential hostilities".

Ukraine has warned that Russia may use the breakaway region to stage an attack on Odesa, including as part of an amphibious assault.

The self-proclaimed government in Transnistria has denied troops are readying for battle, and the Moldovan government says there are no signs of a mobilisation.

While Moldova has long demanded Russia withdraw troops from the separatist region, the country's Minister for Internal Affairs, Ana Revenco, downplayed the chances of Transnistria being used to stage an attack.

"So far the analysis points to a hypothetical threat," she told the ABC.

"I would like to talk in facts."

Despite condemning Russia's invasion and welcoming hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees, Moldova wants to stay neutral and hasn't imposed sanctions on Moscow.

Ukrainian refugees pile into a van on the Moldovan/Ukrainian border. (ABC News: Tom Joyner )

"We [have] no interest being involved in wars or military actions of either of the countries," Ms Revenco said.

Moldova isn't well-placed to withstand pressure from Moscow.

It gets almost all its gas from Russia, which has previously threatened to switch off the supply.

Ms Revenco said the government was fully aware of the "vulnerabilities that Moldova is in", including the energy sector.

Ana Revenco says Moldova wants to keep its neutral status. (ABC News: Tom Joyner)

"We're not hiding it. We are looking for alternative solutions," she added.

Luckily for Moldova, many of those solutions are coming from Europe.

Weaning Moldova off Russian gas

After Russia repeatedly threatened to switch off the tiny state's supplies, blaming unpaid debts, Moldova made history last year by buying some gas from Poland.

A pipeline connecting Moldova with Romania has also been constructed, offering the country better access to European supplies once it is fully operational.

The European Union, which accuses Moscow of "weaponising" gas to control Moldova, is trying to help wean the country off Russian energy.

A scientist at the State Agrarian University of Moldova collects data for research on biofuels. (ABC News: Tom Joyner)

The bloc is funding renewable energy initiatives, including a biomass project to heat homes and businesses using agricultural waste.

Professor Grigore Marian, who leads one project at the State Agrarian University of Moldova, said renewables offered the country a pathway to energy independence.

Marian Grigore (centre) oversees biofuel production in his Chisinau lab. (ABC News: Tom Joyner)

"The resources and energy obtained from [Russia] are not secure and always have political conditions attached," he said.

In the days after Russia's invasion, Moldova joined Ukraine and Georgia in formally applying for European Union membership.

Prime Minister Maia Sandu declared that EU member status would create a "better, safer life for future generations".

However the process could take many years and the bloc may still reject Moldova, especially if the dispute over Transnistria can't be resolved.

Biofuel pellets produced in a lab at the State Agrarian University of Moldova. (ABC News: Tom Joyner)

In the meantime, Moldova is trying to become as self-sufficient as possible.

Russia's tactics may be pushing Moldova away

Russia has played hardball with Moldova on more than just gas, having repeatedly disrupted the country's wine industry too.

Wine is one of the country's most important sectors, and 20 years ago Moldova sold the vast majority of its wine to Russian buyers.

The cellar at Chateau Vartely holds hundreds of bottles of wine ready for export. (ABC News: Tom Joyner)

In recent years however, Moscow has introduced intermittent bans on Moldovan imports. While it said the decision was due to impurities found in the wine, it was widely seen as punishment for Moldova's diplomatic decisions, including seeking closer links with Europe.

Yet Russia's attempts to influence Moldova have at least partially backfired.

Instead of leaving suppliers in Moldova isolated, the bans caused the industry to pursue much stronger ties with Europe.

Inside Chateau Vartely, one of Moldova's leading wineries, wine production continues without disruption despite Russia's bans.

It was simply a matter of finding a new market for Moldovan wine, according to Andrian Digolean.

Andrian Digolean of Chateau Vartely holds a bottle of his prized Taraboste wine in the company’s cellar (ABC News: Tom Joyner)

"Our wineries started … to look for other countries," he said.

"They didn't put all their eggs in one basket."

Wine suppliers have also been aided by an EU agreement that gives Moldova improved access to the European single market.

Chateau Vartely now sends almost nine in 10 bottles to European countries, making it much less reliant on Russian business.

Mr Digolean said EU membership would be a major achievement for his country.

"It's not possible now, but we are doing small steps each year in order to be a part of this European Union family," he said.

Angelina Botushan, who is studying winemaking, said she hoped her country's strengthening ties with Europe would bring her new opportunities, in both work and life.

"The more elderly part of society thinks we should preserve ties with Russia," she said.

"But the younger generation thinks differently and supports moves towards the West.

"I see my future there."

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