An order by Vladimir Putin to strike Ukraine or the West with nuclear weapons will not be obeyed by his top commanders, an expert has predicted.
Many leading military and security officials - as well as the president's own cronies - believe Putin to be dying or gravely ill, Christo Grozev, a senior investigative journalist on Russian affairs, has said.
He says his officers are not willing to risk being hauled before a modern equivalent of the Nuremberg trials for unleashing nuclear armageddon.
Nor would they obey a Putin order to kill opposition forces, claimed Mr Grozev, who is associated with the Bellingcat open source research group.
He said: “I can’t speak without information, but we know that oligarchs from his closest circle claim it.
“We also know that the Lubyanka [FSB secret service] sent a letter about a month ago to all regional FSB chiefs.
“It said: ‘If you hear about him having a very serious illness, we insist you do not pay attention’.
“So they all thought this means the exact opposite.”
During a video interview with Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon, broadcast online, Mr Grozev added: “So I think it doesn’t matter that much if he is dying or gravely ill, what matters is people around him think so.
“This changes the formula, this is a factor in deciding just how loyal people feel they should be to him.
“I believe this factor - that people close to him think that he is not all right health-wise - diminishes the risk of them obeying his order to kill foes, like they did in the past.
“The same reason makes it unlikely that someone will press the nuclear button, with the understanding that if he is gone in three or six months, who will protect them from a trial in Nuremberg?”
TV interviewer Gordon had asked Grozev: “We watch [Putin] spasmodically clutching the corner of the table with his right arm during a meeting with [Defence Minister Sergei] Shoigu.
“And his jacket being too high and tight around his neck, his stumbling, limping gait…
“Is he sick, or do we just so much want him to be sick?"
In recent weeks speculation about Putin's health have increased after he was seen clutching a desk during an interview and looking puffy faced in recent appearances.
