Irving, Texas-based Vistra Corp. (VST) operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. Valued at a market cap of $45.7 billion, the company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure, and retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia.
The electricity supplier’s shares have lagged behind the broader market over the past year, declining 28.4% compared to the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 20.5% surge. Moreover, in 2026, the stock has fallen by nearly 15.6%, underperforming the SPX’s 12.1% rise as well.
Focusing on its industry benchmark, the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) has declined marginally over the past year, outpacing the stock. In 2026, XLU has grown marginally and has also rallied the stock.
On Aug. 7, VST stock declined marginally following the release of its Q2 2026 earnings. The company’s revenue for the quarter amounted to $4 billion and failed to meet the Street’s forecasts. Its total retail electricity sales volume declined 4.4% YoY to 31,800 GWh, and ERCOT sales volumes fell 7.8% as well. The company expects full-year adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $6.8 billion and $7.6 billion, and its ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth to be in the range of $3.9 billion to $4.7 billion.
For the current year, which ends in December, analysts expect VST’s EPS to grow 75.5% to $9.23 on a diluted basis. The company has surpassed the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters, while missing the mark on one occasion.
Among the 17 analysts covering VST stock, the consensus is a “Strong Buy.” That’s based on 16 “Strong Buy” ratings and one “Hold.”
The configuration has grown a little bearish over the past month, with the stock now having 16 “Strong Buy” ratings as compared to 17 a month prior.
On July 29, Morgan Stanley analyst David Arcaro maintained a “Buy” rating on Vistra Corp and set a price target of $212. Despite the company’s apparent underperformance the previous quarter, it is extremely well positioned to capitalize off of the massive energy demand as more data centers start to develop around the country.
VST’s mean price target of $216.24 indicates a premium of 58.8% from the current market price. Its Street-high target of $298 implies a robust 118.8% upside from current levels.
