A visiting general who could soon become America's most senior military officer believes the US and allies such as Australia will need to use "everything in the cupboard" to avoid a conflict over Taiwan.
United States Marine Corps (USMC) Commandant General David Berger has held talks with top military figures in Canberra, but distanced himself from a senior American Air Force officer who's predicted a war with China within two years.
The four-star general has declared the United States is being driven by a need to maintain a deterrence posture against Beijing, although he believes the West continues to hold a technological edge over the Chinese military.
"My own view is this is going to need everything in the cupboard to prevent a conflict," General Berger said during a briefing hosted by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).
"We can't slow down, we can't back off, we can't get comfortable with where we are because the risk then is the other side moves a half step and we've lost the deterrent value that we're after in the first place."
The USMC Commandant, who flew to Darwin where hundreds of US Marines are stationed each year, says the United States and allies such as Australia need to constantly innovate to deter China.
"We're driven by a pacing challenge which is the PRC [People's Republic of China]. There will be ebbs and flows in that long-term competition."
His visit coincides with a stark warning from the US Air Mobility Commander Mike Minihan that America could go to war with China by 2025, because President Xi Jinping is emboldened enough to invade Taiwan.
General Berger did not directly address his colleague's comments but insisted that "guessing at timelines" was very difficult.
"Our strategies are underpinned by deterrence – in other words – do all things possible; military, economically, everything our governments can pour into this to prevent a conflict.
"We have to be prepared all the time. I don't have a crystal ball. I can't predict because there are too many variables."
While General Berger said the People's Liberation Army was a "learning organisation" and had rebalanced its forces to better project beyond China's borders, it was still behind Western allies in certain areas.
"[China has] no partners, no allies, they are behind us technically, technologically," he told a Canberra audience which included leading defence analysts and academics.
ASPI analyst Dr John Coyne, who listened to General Berger's presentation, said the Marine Corps chief's push for new innovative thinking on deterrence was a crucial message.
"The future involves, and certainly when it comes to deterrence, involves a constantly evolving and rethinking West — and certainly for Australia and the US, that constant evolution is going to be important," Dr Coyne said.
There's also speculation in Washington DC that when General Berger returns to the US, President Joe Biden could soon appoint him as the next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the nation's highest-ranking military officer.
