‘Virtually certain’ extreme Antarctic events will get worse without drastic action, scientists warn

Horseshoe Island, Antarctica. Between 1992 and 2020, the melting of Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets has contributed a 2.1cm rise to the global mean sea level. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

It is “virtually certain” that future extreme events in Antarctica will be worse than the extraordinary changes already observed, according to a new scientific warning that stresses the case for immediate and drastic action to limit global heating.

A new review draws together evidence on the vulnerability of Antarctic systems, highlighting recent extremes such as record low sea ice levels, the collapse of ice shelves, and surface temperatures up to 38.5C above average over East Antarctica in 2022 – the world’s largest ever recorded heatwave.