CheckMate is a weekly newsletter from RMIT FactLab which recaps the latest in the world of fact checking and misinformation, drawing on the work of FactLab and its sister organisation, RMIT ABC Fact Check.
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CheckMate September 2, 2022
This week, CheckMate investigates whether excess deaths among children have increased by more than 1,000 per cent in Europe, which some have linked to COVID-19 vaccines.
We also debunk claims that AstraZeneca's vaccine causes monkeypox, and ask: is there really ‘no one in the world’ making electric utes?
Have COVID-19 vaccines caused a 1,000 per cent surge in excess deaths of children?
Social media users have seized on comments by a Swedish blogger to argue that vaccines have caused a surge in deaths among children.
"In children aged 0-14 there has been a horrifying 542 per cent INCREASE in excess death this year compared with last year in Europe," he tweeted, sharing a link to his longer (paywalled) article.
Soon after, he revised that figure upwards: to 1,101 per cent.
While the blogger did not explicitly link the spike to COVID-19 vaccines, many joined the dots.
"Do you need it explaining to you[?]. vax side effects," wrote one Twitter user.
So, what is going on?
The blogger referred to "excess deaths", which are any deaths in addition to what would normally be expected given past trends, including those directly and indirectly related to COVID-19.
His underlying figures were sourced from EuroMOMO, a database operated by a government research institute in Denmark which collates excess mortality data for 22 European countries (plus Israel).
According to the dataset, there have been 841 excess deaths among children aged 0-14 so far in 2022, compared with 70 over the same period in 2021.
That works out to be an increase of 1,101 per cent, although the actual number of additional deaths (771) is far smaller. By comparison, there were an extra 17,772 excess deaths (8.4 per cent) in 2022 across all age groups.
Dmitri Jdanov, who heads the Laboratory of Demographic Data at Germany's Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, told CheckMate via email that the "impressive" percentage change was just an effect of "mortality in this age group [being] relatively low".
He pointed to the weekly EuroMOMO data, which showed that over the first eight months of 2022, only once had the database recorded what it labelled a "substantial increase" in unexpected deaths for the under-15s, while other groups fared far worse.
In addition, Mr Jdanov said the 0-14 age range was "very broad" and that this, coupled with a lack of detailed data, could skew the results due to higher rates of infant mortality.
He also examined country-specific data in the separate Human Mortality Database, but "didn't find anything special in young age groups".
Tim Adair, principal research fellow with Melbourne University's School of Population and Global Health, took issue with the blogger's "problematic" comparison of 2022 with 2021.
This was "because much of Europe spent large parts of the first half of 2021 in lockdown, a period when deaths in ages 0-14 years were lower than the baseline or expected level".
Dr Adair said a better, albeit imperfect, approach was to compare the two six-month periods from mid-2021, after restrictions had been eased.
Viewed this way, the EuroMOMO data shows there were 910 excess deaths in the last half of 2021, and 611 in the first half of 2022 — meaning excess deaths among under-15s fell by 33 per cent.
It's worth noting that European countries only began vaccinating their 5-11 year-olds from December 2021, and the European drugs regulator is yet to approve COVID-19 vaccines for children under 5.
Nevertheless, both experts agreed that deaths were currently higher than would typically be expected, and not all due to COVID-19.
Dr Adair suggested that the post-lockdown resurgence of respiratory infections such as influenza and pneumonia could be playing a role in younger groups.
Meanwhile, Mr Jdanov said the increase might be explained by the "long-term consequences of the pandemic", such as overloaded public health systems, postponed treatments and screenings and the consequences of lockdowns.
Some of those same factors may also be pushing up infant mortality, he said.
In fact, the blogger's article canvassed some of these ideas while discussing overall excess deaths in the UK, though they were summarily dismissed.
But British experts and fact checkers, too, have pointed to overloaded hospitals, delayed treatments, extreme heatwaves and increased risk from heart problems following COVID-19 infection as possible causes.
"There are higher than expected excess deaths at the moment, but these are not linked to vaccination," wrote Full Fact.
Mr Jdanov said: "There is no evidence that vaccination had a negative effect on mortality in any age group. But … there is a strong (negative) correlation between the proportion of vaccinated people and total losses."
COVID-19 vaccine ingredient does not cause monkeypox
In the latest in a string of baseless claims linking COVID-19 jabs to monkeypox, social media users have suggested that an ingredient in the AstraZeneca vaccine was the real cause of the global outbreak.
In numerous online posts, an image displaying the list of ingredients for the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine has been annotated to highlight "chimpanzee adenovirus".
"And they wonder why we are sceptical!!," one user wrote alongside the photo.
"Found your monkeypox," another caption reads.
But RMIT FactLab this week found such claims to be false.
According to Joshua Szanyi, a public health medicine registrar at the Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, there was "no plausible reason why the AstraZeneca vaccine would be linked to monkeypox".
"The chimpanzee adenovirus is used as a vector in the AstraZeneca vaccine," Dr Szanyi said.
"It is harmless to humans. This viral vector [chimpanzee adenovirus] is not related to the virus that causes monkeypox."
As FactLab explained, the chimpanzee adenovirus, which usually causes a common cold in chimpanzees, was used in a weakened form in the AstraZeneca vaccine as a means to carry the COVID vaccine component into human cells.
This adenovirus was genetically changed so that it was impossible for it to grow in humans.
Catherine Bennett, chair in epidemiology at Deakin University, added that the monkeypox virus and chimpanzee adenovirus belonged to different virus families.
Moreover, the claims linking monkeypox to the vaccines appear to be based on an entirely illogical premise: as FactLab pointed out, chimpanzees are not monkeys.
Sussan Ley said 'no one in the world is making an electric ute'. Really?
An assertion made by deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley that "no one in the world is making an electric ute" has been taken for a spin by RMIT ABC Fact Check, which this week labelled the claim as "wrong".
Speaking on Sky News, Ms Ley hit out at the government's failure to invite the Motor Trades Association to its much-anticipated Jobs and Skills Summit, despite including electrical vehicle manufacturer Tesla on the guestlist.
"We know we're not going to have electric vehicles tomorrow," Ms Ley said.
"And no one in the world is making an electric ute, by the way, and even if they were it would be unaffordable."
But there are at least four electric utes being manufactured and sold overseas, including a model sold in New Zealand by Chinese manufacturer LDV, a ute made by Ford and an electric ute version of General Motors' Hummer.
Additionally, plans for a number of electric utes have been announced by companies including Tesla and Chevrolet. An Australian company, ACE, has also been taking reservations for its electric model Yewt.
The federal budget is in worse shape than those of the states and territories, says Finance Minister Katy Gallagher. What are the facts?
The federal government has reluctantly extended pandemic leave payments for sick and isolating workers, but in a July interview with the ABC's 7.30 program, Finance Minister Katy Gallagher foreshadowed the scheme's eventual demise.
By her logic, the payments could not continue indefinitely because the government's budget was in a weaker position than those of the states and territories.
"Now, we are going to at some stage have to start seriously winding back some of this fiscal support because … the Commonwealth budget is in worse shape than many of the states' and territories' budgets at this point if you measured them like for like," she said.
RMIT ABC Fact Check this week found Senator Gallagher to be correct, but there was more to it than her claim suggested.
Although there is no single way of assessing the relative strengths of Australia's Commonwealth, state and territory budgets, on two widely cited metrics the federal government fared among the worst.
Measured by net operating balance, which provides an indication of a government's ability to pay for services, the Commonwealth recorded a deficit in 2021-22 equivalent to 3.2 per cent of the economy. That placed it second behind Victoria's 3.8 per cent.
On net debt, the federal government owed $631.5 billion, according to its latest budget. Equivalent to 27.6 per cent of the economy, that share was higher than in any other jurisdiction and ahead of the Northern Territory (22 per cent) and Victoria (19.8 per cent).
However, experts said such comparisons were largely meaningless, since the federal government had far greater capacity to issue debt and raise taxes compared with the states, and could typically borrow money more cheaply.
As one expert pointed out, the Commonwealth government was expected to carry a greater financial burden during major economic shocks such as a financial crisis or pandemic.
Edited by Ellen McCutchan and David Campbell
Got a fact that needs checking? Tweet us @ABCFactCheck or send us an email at factcheck@rmit.edu.au
