Liverpool set records galore during their 5-2 loss to Real Madrid, and none of them good. It was a result that will never be forgotten and will stick out like a sore thumb in the history of club for the rest of time.
The Reds simply don’t concede five goals, or lose by three, or lose by three from 2-0 up at Anfield very often at all. There are two aspects of the match which will particularly sting. Firstly, Liverpool started so well, racing into a two-goal lead inside 17 minutes for the second match in a row. At that point, Real hadn’t had a touch closer to goal than the edge of the Reds’ penalty box.
The other disappointing aspect of the result is that the visitors scored five times from relatively few chances. Per FBRef, Madrid only had nine shots, worth a total of just 1.7 expected goals (which, remarkably, was 0.2 less than Liverpool mustered).
READ MORE: Alisson Becker lashes out as Liverpool send Real Madrid and UEFA clear message
READ MORE: Luka Modric sends classy six-word message to Liverpool fans after Anfield ovation
As Jurgen Klopp said after the match, “We gave all five goals away. All five.” While that may have been true, the match turned on a sublime piece of finishing, the likes of which the Reds simply haven’t equalled this season.
When Vinicius Junior collected a pass from Karim Benzema near the front right edge of the Liverpool penalty box in the 21st minute, the danger appeared minimal. Sadly for the Reds, the Brazilian then scored from an opportunity valued at just 0.03 expected goals.
"The first goal we concede we have to defend better,” Klopp noted. “We have enough players around, nobody puts a foot in.” He wasn’t wrong but the Liverpool defenders can’t have expected Vinicius to score from that position.
The problem was that his finish was utterly sublime. Opta have a post-shot expected goals (PSxG) model which evaluates how likely a goalkeeper is to save an on-target effort, based on the ball placement within the goal frame. Vinicius’ first goal was rated as 0.41 on this metric. In other words, Madrid’s left forward took a chance which had a 1-in-33 likelihood of being scored and upped it to close to one-in-two, making it 14 times more likely to beat Alisson Becker than it initially seemed.
GET INVOLVED: Can Liverpool turn the tie around in the second leg? Answer this, and two more key questions from Tuesday's defeat, in our special poll:
Adding at least 0.38 between xG and PSxG isn’t that rare. It has occurred 61 times in Liverpool’s league and European matches in 2022/23, with the totals 34-27 in the Reds’ favour. But in a lot of these instances, the chances were already of a high value,with the finishing merely ensuring that a golden opportunity gave the goalkeeper no chance.
If you filter shots down to find those worth no more than 0.03 expected goals but which were worth at least 0.41 once finishing was taken into account, you find only seven. The momentum turning strike from Vinicius was the first of them to actually find the net.
Not only were five of the septet efforts by Liverpool, but three of them occurred in matches they failed to win. A Harvey Elliott volley early in the second half of the goalless draw at Goodison Park meets the criteria, as does a Trent Alexander-Arnold free-kick in the dismal 4-1 loss to Napoli. The Reds’ performance was so poor they’d have likely lost the latter match regardless, though as the effort would’ve made the score 1-1, it would’ve stemmed the bleeding at the very least.
In similar fashion, Fabinho added 0.52 to a long-range effort at Brentford, five minutes after Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain halved the deficit; a goal then may easily have been worth a point or more. Equally, the latter two examples were both hit from at least 26 yards out, not in the box like Vinicius' strike was. No matter what improvement finishing adds, from that distance a goalkeeper is far likelier to have time to react.
Liverpool have had 33 shots in the box worth no more than 0.03 xG this season, and just nine of them were on target. Roberto Firmino and Virgil van Dijk converted two, against Southampton and Aston Villa respectively, though both were in set piece situations against lower table Premier League sides. Vinicius Junior taught the Reds a painful lesson about their finishing on a much grander stage.
READ NEXT
