You’ve heard it before and you’ll continue to hear it throughout the offseason. The Minnesota Vikings are at a crossroads with a pivotal offseason in 2024.
The questions that they are facing are boundless and plentiful. Will they re-sign Kirk Cousins? Does Justin Jefferson get his earned contract extension? Which of the three free-agent edge rushers end up re-signing? Is Harrison Smith going to retire?
Those are just the biggest of the many questions that general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O’Connell need to answer before the Vikings kick off the start of the regular season.
Going into the offseason, it was time for a mailbag. What questions did the fans have about the team and how those potential decisions could shape the team moving forward.
Nix, Penix Jr. or McCarthy?
If the Vikings decided they had to have one of Nix, Penix or McCarthy. Which of those players would you have the most confidence in becoming a long term starter for this team? And do you think any of them are worthy of the #11 pick?
— Vikesfan33 (@EricVikesfan28) January 20, 2024
Honestly, I would prefer J.J. McCarthy of that group and my NFL draft grades currently reflect that. Despite having played in an offense that didn’t let him display his ability as a quarterback as much as the others you listed, McCarthy has some really impressive big boy throws in tight spaces and has shown the ability to not only run a pro-style offense but also going through progressions at a high level. Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. graded out lower due to limitations and injury concerns.
Being low on Nix when big names are high on him
Thoughts on Jeremiah, Renner, and Zierlein all having 1st round grades on Nix?
— stpalme (@stpalme1) January 20, 2024
To be fair here, I haven’t spoken to any of the three analysts you mentioned and I have a lot of respect for them.
If I had to guess, it’s a difference in contextualizing the offense Nix played in. I think it was designed specifically to hide the limitations of Nix. He can’t do a lot of the things you want and need a pro quarterback to do and that is evident in what Oregon asked him to do. When I look at projecting Nix, I don’t see him developing enough in the areas he struggles, especially since he is the NCAA leader in career starts with 61.
Mid round quarterbacks
What QBs are in the draft in rounds 3-7? Specifically looking for a QB that is an accurate pocket passer and is at least 6’2”.
— Cubbison6 (@BillCubbison) January 20, 2024
The one that stands out to me is Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt. There are some limitations to his game especially when you consider arm strength but he is a capable pocket passer along with being dual-threat that can gash you in the running game. There aren’t a lot of great mid-round quarterbacks as I expect at least six of them to be taken before the end of round two.
Player swap
Is there a 1-player swap from any team to the Vikings that would have made them Super Bowl contenders this year?
— Razzle Dazzle (@areaberbeabaerb) January 20, 2024
The easy answer here is Lamar Jackson who I believe is the league MVP this year. If you don’t consider injuries, I think a dominant force on the interior of the defensive line would be a massive game changer so I’m going with Aaron Donald. He isn’t just great at rushing the passer but Donald knows how to impact the running game with penetration and gap control. Having that element would have done wonders for a defense that was already much improved.
2022 draft class
What is the possibility that Cine,Booth and Asamoah all start next year
— CINE SZN 💔 (@MaybeRazy) January 20, 2024
Let me answer this in two parts.
Will they each start at least a game? I’d put that around 60%. I would guess it’s much more likely for Booth and Asamoah to get starts over Cine with how deep safety is.
Will all three become starters next season? I don’t think it’s that likely. Yes, they have draft pedigree but their usage and performance this season doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence for that to be the case.
Trade up
How likely do you think it is for the Vikings to give up 2 to 3 first round picks to move up in the draft? Kind of like when the 9ers grabbed Trey lance
— cody (@vikingskoldier) January 18, 2024
What percent chance do you give for a trade happening between Vikings up to a top 3 pick? I think 20% chance it happens.
— Bob Yenter (@Squirmturtle) January 18, 2024
I’m not entirely sure that the Vikings will get a deal done to move up into the top five to get that quarterback, but I think it’s a near certainty that they will try. Earlier this month, I did a lot of research and wrote a piece talking about the likely cost using historical examples and the Rich Hill trade chart. It was widely reported that the Vikings were trying to trade up for Anthony Richardson last year but they couldn’t get the Cardinals to agree to trade down to 23rd overall. It’s clear that the Vikings want to move up but getting a trade partner to agree will be the tough part.
Percentage that they get a deal done? I’d go 40%.
Use the draft or free agency for the DL
D Line needs obvious improvement. Probably hinges on what happens with Danielle and Kirk – but would you rather sign one of the big name DI’s or draft one. We have one of the worst interior pressure rates, so personally I’d rather sign a known commodity and use the draft for edge
— Yancy McFrondo (@lemoncashjeff) January 18, 2024
One thing that you will hear me discuss over the course of the offseason is that free agency is about filling needs and the NFL draft is about taking the best players. Yes, teams do stack their boards based on both talent and need but it’s smarter to fill needs with free agency to give yourself flexibility in the draft. Attack the defensive line in free agency and give yourself the ability to do anything in the upcoming NFL draft.
Cap space
What do you estimate the Vikings' available cap space to be entering FA in 2024? And for reference, what was it in 2023 and 2022?
— Jo Bu (@jdbunkers) January 21, 2024
This is a rough estimation because there are so many different ways this can go. Effecitive cap space is what we are going to use since that will have the amount taken out for the draft picks the Vikings will sign. Right now, it’s in the neighborhood $21 million. With the likely re-signing of Danielle Hunter, a Justin Jefferson extension and moving on from Harrison Smith, that number could easily rise to around $40 million, if not closer to $50 million with other moves. Last season, the Vikings had enough money to play with but they didn’t make any big splashes. 2022 had some of the same but they made things work when they had the opportunity.
